REVERSALS AND TRENDS

📉 S&P 500 — 2nd week of a new base cycle (avg. 20 weeks), which started on the 20 November pivot forecast. The previous base cycle lasted 16 weeks. The 20 November pivot forecast marked the midpoint of Mercury’s retrograde and was announced earlier this year in the post “Retro-Mercury 2025” (see index posts). Such aspects often carry the strength of an extremum forecast. ✔️ Last week I wrote: “By Friday’s close, all three indices — S&P, DJIA, and NASDAQ — flashed a bullish technical signal from the MA100 in a highly negative context: a bearish divergence on the DJIA and descending peaks on the S&P and NASDAQ, both capped by the MA20–MA50 cluster. The current base cycle (17 weeks) is mature enough to reach its bottom.” 👉 The maturity of the cycle, the MA100, and the midpoint of the retro-Mercury period turned out to be solid arguments for launching a new base cycle. The expected completion timing for this cycle is March 2026. Given the current bullish momentum and the di...

📉 S&P 500 — 17th week of the base cycle (avg. 20 weeks), which started on the 4 August extremum forecast. The rollercoaster action on Thursday — across the full range of supports and resistances from the MA20 to the MA100 — was a textbook display of Mercury’s retrograde effect. The 20 November pivot forecast marks the midpoint of the retrograde period and was mentioned earlier this year in the post “Retro-Mercury 2025.” Such aspects often act with the strength of an extremum forecast. 👉 By Friday’s close, all three indices — S&P, DJIA, and NASDAQ — flashed a bullish technical signal from the MA100, though within a strongly negative context: a bearish divergence on the DJIA and descending peaks on the S&P and NASDAQ, both capped by the MA20–MA50 cluster. The current base cycle (17 weeks) is mature enough to reach its bottom. 👉 If this marks the start of a new base cycle, there’s a chance it could turn out to be bearish. The 1 December extremum forecast — built on a powe...

📉 S&P 500 — 16th week of the base cycle (avg. 20 weeks), which started on the 4 August extremum forecast. In the first week of Mercury’s retrograde, the trickster showed his full potential. The energetic bull on Monday–Tuesday was replaced by an aggressive bear on Wednesday–Thursday. All this lively action ended in a flat Friday close — right where the market had been a week earlier. Classic retro-Mercury behavior: sudden reversals and frequent whipsaw movements (see index posts on retro-Mercury). 👉 By Friday’s close, the DJIA formed a bearish divergence, while the S&P and NASDAQ printed lower highs. At the same time, both S&P and NASDAQ formed a double bottom and bullish candles. The current base cycle (16 weeks) is mature enough to reach its low. Starting Monday, November 17, a series of strong geocosmic aspects are expected, which, combined with retro-Mercury, could bring volatility and mixed sentiment to index movements. 👉 Last week I wrote: “The bearish week ended...

🔺 A new bomb is ticking beneath the U.S. financial system — this time in the commercial real estate sector. While the Fed debates inflation, the real problem lies deeper: $4.9 trillion in mortgages have been issued against offices, malls, and warehouses — nearly double the amount tied to housing in 2008. Already one in eight commercial mortgages is in default — the worst rate on record. 🔺 Bank balance sheets are stuffed with “toxic” securities that not long ago were considered safe: they were backed by real properties and corporate tenants with stable cash flows. But the economy has changed — e-commerce and remote work have crushed demand for offices and retail space. Buildings stand empty, rental streams have dried up, and vacancy rates continue to rise year after year. 🔺 In theory, banks can repossess the properties — but there are no buyers. Keeping them on the books means losses; repurposing them is nearly impossible; selling at collateral value — unrealistic. 🔺 The Fed can’...

🔺 Signs of an AI bubble are becoming increasingly clear: stock valuations have reached dangerous heights, corporate debt is rising, and a sustainable business model has yet to emerge. Against this backdrop, investor Michael Burry — who famously predicted the 2008 mortgage crisis — has placed a bet against the leaders of the AI market: Nvidia and Palantir. His fund, Scion Asset Management, acquired options that will profit if their shares decline. The positions are estimated at roughly $900 million in Palantir and $200 million in Nvidia. 🔺 The move is telling: Burry clearly sees parallels with the dot-com bubble. Nvidia is now valued at nearly $5 trillion, and Palantir has tripled in price over the past year — yet much of this growth is driven by expectations rather than solid earnings. Excessive multiples, massive data-center investments, and cross-holdings among AI companies are fueling a loop of self-sustaining euphoria. 🔺 For traders and investors, this is a signal that the “ba...

📉 S&P 500 — 15th week of the base cycle (avg. 20 weeks), which started on the 4 August extremum forecast. The 3–4 November extremum forecast halted the bear at the daily MA20 but failed to reverse it. The bearish week ended with a bullish candle bouncing off the daily MA50. 👉 On Monday, November 10, a powerful aspect cluster arrives — featuring our old acquaintance, retrograde Mercury. The dates of this period were published in a dedicated post earlier this year (see index). Surprises are likely across markets. In this context, one could even assume the end of the second phase and the start of a new base cycle — and as we know, the beginning of any cycle is always bullish. However, the trickster Mercury can easily shuffle all the cards. 💥 The stock market remains surrounded by ominous signs — from the AI frenzy and Buffett’s money bags to the commercial real estate crisis and the Hindenburg Omen. I continue to adhere to the long-term strategy based on the 7-year and 18-year cr...

🔺 The “Hindenburg Omen” is a technical indicator that warns of potential market crashes. It was created by Jim Miekka, a blind mathematician with no formal financial education. The name refers to the Hindenburg airship disaster — a symbol of sudden collapse. 🔺 The signal reflects an internal split within the market: some stocks are making new yearly highs while others are hitting new lows. This means that growth and decline are happening simultaneously, and the overall trend is losing stability. For the signal to trigger, more than 2.8% of NYSE stocks must reach new highs and an equal percentage must reach new lows, while the index remains above its 50-day moving average and the McClellan Oscillator is negative. 🔺 When all these conditions align, the market is considered “unstable from within.” If the signal appears repeatedly, the probability of a serious correction rises sharply. 🔺 The Omen has preceded major crashes — in 1987, 2000, and 2008 — and reappeared again in late Oct...

🔺 Today, the structure of the U.S. stock market looks like a caricature of diversification. Just 41 AI-related stocks make up only 8% of the S&P 500’s composition — yet they already account for 47% of its total market capitalization, an all-time record. The remaining 459 stocks, the vast majority of the index, represent only 53% of its capitalization. This means that the fate of the “broad” market now depends on a handful of companies betting on the same fashionable idea. 🔺 The driving force behind it all is a dozen corporate giants that not only profit from the AI hype but also amplify it in sync through endless declarations about a “revolutionary future.” In reality, most of these promises have yet to translate into actual gains in efficiency or profits. These companies reinforce each other in a coordinated loop — shared press releases, cross-integrations, mutual sales — all to sustain the illusion of exponential growth. 🔺 The market now exists in a state of self-sustaining ...

📉 S&P 500 — 13th week of the base cycle (avg. 20 weeks), which started on the 4 August extremum forecast. The market is now in the second phase of the base cycle, which began from the local support level at 6500 and the MA50 on the 14 October extremum forecast. On Friday, all three major indices finally broke through the daily range of October 10 and reached new highs. All the bullish signs of both the second phase and the current base cycle are in place. The euphoria continues — moving with the flow. 💰 Strong hands with stops below the MA50 are holding the long position opened on the 14 October extremum forecast. The entry was technically challenging, though another opportunity to open a long position appeared on the 17 October pivot forecast. Many positions with tight stops were shaken out by volatility. ⚠️ The next extremum forecast for U.S. stock indices falls on 3 November. The nearest pivot forecast is 24–27 October. 🏆 GOLD — 10th week of the base cycle (15–20+ weeks), w...

📉 S&P 500 — 12th week of the base cycle (avg. 20 weeks), which started on the 4 August extremum forecast. The U.S. government shutdown had a strong impact on the stock market, which stayed within the daily range of Friday, October 10, throughout the week. However, the local support level at 6500 and the MA50 held back Friday’s aggressive bear. On the 14 October extremum forecast, there were even some signs of hesitant growth. The picture in NASDAQ and DJIA looks similar. 👉 This is no longer the confident bull we saw in August and September. The current base cycle, now in its 12th week, has clearly reached peak maturity. Technically, the probability of making a new high in this cycle decreases with each passing day. For the base cycle to turn bearish, the market must close below the 4 August extremum — which still seems unlikely. Most likely, in the near term we’ll see the formation of an intermediate top or a double top at one of the upcoming extremum or pivot forecasts. 💰 The...

📉 S&P 500 – 11th week of the base cycle (avg. 20 weeks), which started on the 4 Aug. extremum forecast. Last week I wrote: “The week closed with an indecisive candlestick pattern on the index and a bearish candle on the active futures contract.” 👉 Geocosmic pressure persisted through the week, reflected in the market’s shaky technical setup. The pivot forecast on 6 Oct. stalled the bullish advance, while the 8 Oct. pivot triggered an aggressive bearish reversal on Friday. 👉 Friday’s bear erased the entire cyclical upswing since early September. The current base cycle no longer looks like a confident bull. For it to turn officially bearish, the market must close below the 4 Aug. extremum — still unlikely for now. We may be seeing the end of the first phase of the base cycle, potentially turning on one of the upcoming extremum or pivot forecasts: 14 Oct. or 20 Oct. ☝️ Unfortunately, the 8 Oct. pivot forecast wasn’t mentioned in last week’s post due to human error. This geocos...

📉 S&P 500 – 10th week of the base cycle (avg. 20 weeks), which started on the 4 Aug. extremum-forecast. Last week I wrote: "Friday closed on a bullish impulse, but geocosmic pressure remains." 👉 That’s exactly what happened: Friday’s bullish impulse worked through a technical signal without any aspect support. On Wednesday, outside regular trading hours, a sharp drawdown hit due to the U.S. shutdown, taking out part of the long positions. I also noted the potential impact of the Oct. 1 shutdown in last week’s post. The week closed with an indecisive candle on the index and a bearish candle on the active futures contract. 💰 The short position opened on the 22 Sep. extremum-forecast was closed at trailing stop with no loss. Aggressive traders who exited at the daily MA20 target captured about $4K per ES contract. 💰 Friday’s 26 Sep. close produced a bullish technical signal without correlation to any geocosmic aspect. My long position on this signal was taken out by...

📉 S&P 500 – 9th week of the base cycle (avg. 20 weeks), which started on the 4 Aug. extremum forecast. The market reversed right on the 22 Sep. extremum forecast in the context of the Saros cycle (see last week’s post + separate note). The impulse carried down to the daily MA20. Friday closed on a bullish note, but geocosmic pressure remains. 👉 After a sequence of powerful geocosmic signals, markets now enter a 2-week pause. Solar-lunar activity will stay in play, but the focus shifts to the aftermath of recent events and announcements. The only exception could be a U.S. government shutdown starting Oct 1, allowing the administration to send civil servants into unpaid leave or even lay them off. 💰 A short position was opened on the 22 Sep. extremum forecast by a technical signal, still alive after Friday without being taken out by the trailing stop. Aggressive traders closing at the daily MA20 target captured about $4K per ES futures contract. ⚠️ Next extremum forecast for U...

📉 S&P 500 – 8th week of the base cycle (average 20 weeks), which started at the 4 August extremum-forecast. On Friday, all three indices reached new all-time highs. 👉 22 September – solar eclipse near the autumn equinox. This one belongs to the Saros cycle tied to the crises of 1971, 1989, and 2007. This time, however, it comes with tense aspects from Venus, Mars, Saturn, and Pluto — altogether, a signal of instability. For the markets this means one thing: gold, equities, and crypto may turn sharply. Volatility will become both a threat and an opportunity — in such periods it is critical to keep risk under control. 💰 The long position opened on the pivot-forecast of 1 September closed via trailing stop. The working amplitude of this move on the ES futures was about $7K per contract. ⚠️ The next extremum-forecast for US equity indices falls on Monday, 22 September . 🏆 GOLD – 5th week of the base cycle (15–20+ weeks), which started at the 25 August extremum-forecast. The s...

📈 S&P 500 – at this point it’s fair to conclude that we are most likely in the 7th week of a new base cycle (avg. 20 weeks), which began on the Aug 4 extreme forecast. I already made this assumption three weeks ago in my Aug 23 post: "Where are we now: the 20th week of the current base cycle (avg. 20 weeks) or the 4th week of a new base cycle? For a mature base cycle, this bull is too lively. The fact is that sometimes, in strong bull markets, a new base cycle can start on a breakout with almost no correction. It’s possible that the base cycle low was reached on the Aug 1–4 extreme forecast. The stock market may well be in the 4th week of a new base cycle." ☝️ The Aug 4 extreme forecast was announced earlier this year. It coincided with the midpoint of Mercury retrograde, once again proving its forecasting effectiveness. 👉 Two weeks ago I wrote: “The technical picture remains resilient, confirming the long-term bull trend.” The Sept 8 extreme forecast didn’t come wi...

🔺 Today’s market lives in two dimensions at once. In some assets we see clear signs of deflation — demand is shrinking, prices rolling back. In others — the opposite: inflation keeps accelerating, with the cost of coveted assets and goods rising, fueled by excess liquidity. 🔺 This is no paradox. It all depends on where you look. Where there’s no flow of speculative capital, prices tend to reflect real demand and the state of the economy. But wherever investment flows and mass expectations concentrate, a bubble takes shape. 🔺 In recent years it has become obvious that gold, stocks, and crypto now move in sync as a single class of risk assets. Once they could live their own lives, but after trillions in liquidity were pumped into the system, the difference has vanished. These assets are no longer a diversification for each other. Either they all rise, or they all fall. 🔺 This creates the illusion of prosperity. People eagerly take loans, live on credit, buy what used to be conside...

📉 S&P 500 – 22nd week of the base cycle (avg. 20 weeks). The current base cycle is at the edge of maturity, where reversals often form. By Friday’s close, S&P once again showed signs of a reversal from a new ATH. Against the backdrop of fresh highs in S&P and DJIA, a bearish divergence with NASDAQ persists (see chart). 💰 The short position opened on Friday’s technical signal from the 27 Aug pivot-forecast impulse was closed by trailing stop at breakeven. On the 1 Sept pivot-forecast (previously noted for gold and crude oil), a long position was opened. ⚠️ The next extreme-forecast for US equity indices falls on Monday, 8 Sept — a strong forecasting aspect with high potential for surprises. The following extreme-forecast for US stocks is on 22 Sept. 🏆 GOLD – 3rd week of the new base cycle (15–20+ weeks). Finally, the long-awaited bullish breakout. The bulky technical formation turned out to be a continuation triangle. 👌 The 25 Aug extreme-forecast still worked and ...