👀 WEEKLY SUMMARY 13.10–17.10 / FORECAST

📉 S&P 500 — 12th week of the base cycle (avg. 20 weeks), which started on the 4 August extremum forecast. The U.S. government shutdown had a strong impact on the stock market, which stayed within the daily range of Friday, October 10, throughout the week. However, the local support level at 6500 and the MA50 held back Friday’s aggressive bear. On the 14 October extremum forecast, there were even some signs of hesitant growth. The picture in NASDAQ and DJIA looks similar.

👉 This is no longer the confident bull we saw in August and September. The current base cycle, now in its 12th week, has clearly reached peak maturity. Technically, the probability of making a new high in this cycle decreases with each passing day. For the base cycle to turn bearish, the market must close below the 4 August extremum — which still seems unlikely. Most likely, in the near term we’ll see the formation of an intermediate top or a double top at one of the upcoming extremum or pivot forecasts.

💰 The short position opened on the 8 October pivot forecast closed on a trailing stop. The working amplitude of this move on the ES futures was about $2K per contract. I’m sure most professional traders took their profits off the table on Friday near the MA50 — such moves don’t happen every day. The total amplitude of this wave was around $10K per contract.

💰 The technical signal for opening a long position on the 14 October pivot forecast was rather questionable — if not absent altogether. The October 10 candle carried too much risk. Some may have entered and held the position, though.

⚠️ The nearest pivot forecasts for U.S. stock indices fall on 17–20 October and 24–27 October. The next extremum forecast for the stock market is on 3 November.

🏆 GOLD — 9th week of the base cycle (15–20+ weeks), which started on the 25 August extremum forecast. The Mars-in-Scorpio period once again proved its effectiveness. This geocosmic phenomenon, occurring every two years and strongly correlated with bullish rallies in gold, is discussed in a separate post. The period will last for two more full weeks and will end on 4 November, right at the next extremum forecast.

👉 Against this backdrop, any signs of reversal should be treated with caution. It’s clear that through social media and mass media, a huge number of weak hands have been drawn into the precious metals market. It’s also clear that, considering gold’s long-term cycles, 2025 is the 10th year of the current 15-year cycle. The tops of both previous bullish 15-year cycles were reached in their 10th year. Nevertheless, the bearish candles in gold and silver on the 17 October pivot forecast are not necessarily reversal points of the current cycle. With Mars in Scorpio, this reversal will not come easily.

💰 The long position opened on the 22 September extremum forecast with a free stop remains active.

⚠️ The nearest pivot forecast falls on 17–20 October (as mentioned last week for the stock market). The next pivot forecast is 24–27 October. The next extremum forecast for gold is 3–4 November.

🛢 CRUDE OIL — 24th week of the base cycle (28 weeks). A very mature base cycle in its second bearish phase. The 14 October extremum forecast had no visible impact on the crude bear, which broke a strong support level two weeks ago. The decline in crude oil paused only around the 17–20 October pivot forecast (mentioned last week for the stock market), technically hitting the lower edge of the weekly Bollinger band. The bottom of the current base cycle in crude may be reached in the coming weeks at one of the extremum or pivot forecasts.

💰 The short position opened on the 8 October pivot forecast remains active.

⚠️ The nearest pivot forecast falls on 17–20 October (mentioned last week for the stock market). The next extremum forecast is 22 October (a strong aspect), followed by another pivot forecast on 24–27 October.


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