👀 WEEKLY SUMMARY 17.11–21.11 / FORECAST
📉 S&P 500 — 17th week of the base cycle (avg. 20 weeks), which started on the 4 August extremum forecast. The rollercoaster action on Thursday — across the full range of supports and resistances from the MA20 to the MA100 — was a textbook display of Mercury’s retrograde effect. The 20 November pivot forecast marks the midpoint of the retrograde period and was mentioned earlier this year in the post “Retro-Mercury 2025.” Such aspects often act with the strength of an extremum forecast.
👉 By Friday’s close, all three indices — S&P, DJIA, and NASDAQ — flashed a bullish technical signal from the MA100, though within a strongly negative context: a bearish divergence on the DJIA and descending peaks on the S&P and NASDAQ, both capped by the MA20–MA50 cluster. The current base cycle (17 weeks) is mature enough to reach its bottom.
👉 If this marks the start of a new base cycle, there’s a chance it could turn out to be bearish. The 1 December extremum forecast — built on a powerful negative geocosmic aspect — awaits the market right at the key resistance zone of the MA20 and MA50. The bear will confirm with a breakdown below the strong support level of 6530 on the S&P — corresponding to the 14 October and 20 November extremum forecasts.
💰 The short position opened on the 11 November extremum forecast closed on a trailing stop. The working amplitude of this move on the ES futures was around $6K per contract.
⚠️ The nearest extremum forecast for U.S. stock indices falls on 1 December — a very strong geocosmic aspect. The next pivot forecasts are 24 November and 26 November (a weak aspect). Markets will be closed on 27 November for Thanksgiving Day.
🏆 GOLD — 14th week of the base cycle (15–20+ weeks), which started on the 25 August extremum forecast. The second phase. The aggressive bear that broke below the daily MA20 last week quickly ran out of steam. The gold market spent the week in a narrow range clinging to the MA20 and ended flat.
👉 Longer timeframes look bearish, but there are no clear technical signals. No positions were opened in gold. The bear will be confirmed by a break below the 29 October and 4 November extremum forecast levels. Remember, retro-Mercury often brings surprises. A bull scenario cannot be ruled out, as the current base cycle is nearing completion.
👉 I continue to follow a long-term strategy based on the fact that 2025 marks the 10th year of the current 15-year gold cycle, and the tops of both previous bullish 15-year cycles were reached in their 10th year. That doesn’t prevent me from tactically opening long positions within the base cycle and the geocosmic context.
⚠️ The nearest extremum forecast for gold falls on 1 December — a very strong geocosmic aspect. The next pivot forecasts are 24 November and 26 November (a weak aspect). Markets will be closed on 27 November for Thanksgiving Day.
🛢 CRUDE OIL — possibly the 6th week of a new base cycle (28 weeks). However, it may also represent the final stage (29th week) of the previous cycle, depending on next week’s market behavior. If this is indeed a new base cycle, it looks like a super-bear — with potentially catastrophic consequences for crude prices and all entities dependent on them.
👉 Last week I wrote: “…the continuation of the bullish trend that began at the 17–20 October pivot forecast is in question… Technically, the daily MA20 and MA50 lie ahead. From the geocosmic side, the next pivot forecast is 17 November…” The combined resistance of the MA20 and MA50 was strong enough to reverse crude on the 17 November pivot forecast. By Friday’s close, the market once again hit the lower edge of its descending channel — which no longer resembles a bullish flag.
👉 In the long-term view, I remain bearish under the 2010 scenario, which I’ve discussed in detail earlier (see index posts). The Jupiter–Uranus conjunction of April 2024 — in three previous cases (1969, 1983, and 1996) — led to an immediate price correction and a 2–3-year bear market. In the latest case, in 2010, it resulted in a three-year sideways trend followed by the 2014 crude collapse. In this context, the post “Reset Cycle — Russian Roulette” also remains relevant.
💰 A short position was opened on the 17 November pivot forecast.
⚠️ The next extremum forecast for crude oil falls on 10 December. The next pivot forecasts are 24 November, 26 November (a weak aspect), and 1 December (a strong aspect). Markets will be closed on 27 November for Thanksgiving Day.
#stocks #gold #crudeoil
Comments
Post a Comment