👀 WEEKLY SUMMARY 10.11–14.11 / FORECAST

📉 S&P 500 — 16th week of the base cycle (avg. 20 weeks), which started on the 4 August extremum forecast. In the first week of Mercury’s retrograde, the trickster showed his full potential. The energetic bull on Monday–Tuesday was replaced by an aggressive bear on Wednesday–Thursday. All this lively action ended in a flat Friday close — right where the market had been a week earlier. Classic retro-Mercury behavior: sudden reversals and frequent whipsaw movements (see index posts on retro-Mercury).

👉 By Friday’s close, the DJIA formed a bearish divergence, while the S&P and NASDAQ printed lower highs. At the same time, both S&P and NASDAQ formed a double bottom and bullish candles. The current base cycle (16 weeks) is mature enough to reach its low. Starting Monday, November 17, a series of strong geocosmic aspects are expected, which, combined with retro-Mercury, could bring volatility and mixed sentiment to index movements.

👉 Last week I wrote: “The bearish week ended with a bullish candle bouncing off the daily MA50.” That candle allowed for a long position on the 10 November extremum forecast. On Wednesday, November 12, a sell signal appeared, allowing a reversal to the short side — also in sync with the 11 November extremum forecast for crude oil.

💰 The short position opened on the 29 October pivot forecast closed on a trailing stop on November 10. For those who didn’t take profit near the daily MA50 before the retro-Mercury phase, the working amplitude of this move on the ES futures was around $6K per contract. The long position opened on the 10 November extremum forecast closed on a trailing stop, with an amplitude of about $3K per contract. A new short position was opened on the 11 November extremum forecast.

⚠️ The nearest extremum forecast for U.S. stock indices falls on 1 December. The next pivot forecasts are 17 November, 20 November, and 24 November.

🏆 GOLD — 13th week of the base cycle (15–20+ weeks), which started on the 25 August extremum forecast. The second phase. Gold’s market behavior last week perfectly matched the traits of Mercury retrograde (see index posts): false breakouts of key levels, sudden reversals, and frequent opposing moves.

👉 After a strong bullish rally on the 10 November extremum forecast with a breakout above the daily MA20, gold reversed on Thursday into an aggressive bear with a breakdown back below the MA20. The second phase of the gold base cycle is starting to show bearish characteristics. It looks like a liquidity squeeze and/or margin-call pressure. The bearish confirmation would come with a break below the 29 October and 4 November extremum forecast levels.

👉 I continue to follow a long-term strategy based on the fact that 2025 marks the 10th year of the current 15-year gold cycle, and the tops of both previous bullish 15-year cycles were reached in their 10th year. That doesn’t prevent me from taking tactical long positions within the base cycle and geocosmic context.

💰 The long position opened on the 4 November extremum forecast (also could have been opened on the 10 November extremum forecast) closed on a trailing stop. The working amplitude of this move on the GC futures was around $14K per contract.

⚠️ The nearest extremum forecast for gold falls on 1 December. The next pivot forecasts are 17 November, 20 November, and 24 November.

🛢 CRUDE OIL — with high probability, this is the 5th week of a new base cycle (28 weeks), though alternative scenarios remain possible — it could still be the final week (28th) of the previous cycle, depending on next week’s price behavior. The antics of retro-Mercury were especially visible on crude charts last week. A two-day bullish breakout attempt above the daily MA20 turned into a sharp one-day collapse on Wednesday, breaking below the MA20 — yet the bear had no follow-through, and crude closed Friday flat, at the same level as a week ago.

👉 Crude remains within a moderate descending channel — a flag pattern in technical terms — as part of the correction from the 24–27 October pivot forecast. However, by the end of last week, the flag had stretched significantly, putting the continuation of the bullish trend (which began at the 17–20 October pivot forecast) into question. We’ll see how this pattern behaves next week. Technically, the daily MA20 and MA50 lie just ahead. From the geocosmic perspective, the next pivot forecast is 17 November, followed by the midpoint of the retro-Mercury period on 20 November (see index posts).

💰 The short position opened on the 3 November pivot forecast closed on a trailing stop at breakeven. The short position opened on the 11 November pivot forecast also closed on a trailing stop — either at breakeven or with a small gain.

⚠️ The next extremum forecast for crude oil falls on 10 December. The next pivot forecasts are 17 November, 20 November, and 24 November.

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