👀 WEEKLY SUMMARY 3.11–7.11 / FORECAST
📉 S&P 500 — 15th week of the base cycle (avg. 20 weeks), which started on the 4 August extremum forecast. The 3–4 November extremum forecast halted the bear at the daily MA20 but failed to reverse it. The bearish week ended with a bullish candle bouncing off the daily MA50.
👉 On Monday, November 10, a powerful aspect cluster arrives — featuring our old acquaintance, retrograde Mercury. The dates of this period were published in a dedicated post earlier this year (see index). Surprises are likely across markets. In this context, one could even assume the end of the second phase and the start of a new base cycle — and as we know, the beginning of any cycle is always bullish. However, the trickster Mercury can easily shuffle all the cards.
💥 The stock market remains surrounded by ominous signs — from the AI frenzy and Buffett’s money bags to the commercial real estate crisis and the Hindenburg Omen. I continue to adhere to the long-term strategy based on the 7-year and 18-year crisis cycles and the 2024–2030 crisis map, with the market peak projected for February 2026 and the bottom not before late 2028. This has been covered extensively in earlier posts (see index).
💰 The short position opened on the 29 October pivot forecast remains active. Some traders may have taken profit near the daily MA50 before the retrograde Mercury period began. The working amplitude of this move on the ES futures was around $9K per contract.
⚠️ The nearest extremum forecast for U.S. stock indices falls on 10 November. The next pivot forecast is 17 November.
🏆 GOLD — 12th week of the base cycle (15–20+ weeks), which started on the 25 August extremum forecast. Last week I wrote:
“After an intense downtrend, the gold market is trying to form its second phase from the 29 October pivot forecast. The daily MA20 represents a serious barrier for bulls, reinforced by a powerful geocosmic aspect on 3–4 November. A breakout above the MA20 or a rejection from it into a second wave of the bearish trend will be crucial for the structural formation of the second phase of the base cycle.”
👉 Eventually, the daily MA20 indeed held the bulls but failed to push the market into the second wave of the bearish trend. The week ended flat, with no change. The 3–4 November extremum forecast gave a bullish technical signal, yet price never broke out of its narrow range.
👉 The stage now belongs to retrograde Mercury on Monday, November 10. Given the clear 9-day trading range, a breakout is likely in either direction — which is typical for the trickster retro-Mercury (see index). The intrigue around whether the second phase of the gold base cycle will turn bullish or bearish remains.
💰 The short position opened on the 17–20 October pivot forecast closed on a trailing stop on October 31. The working amplitude of this move on the GC futures was around $18K per contract. A long position was opened on the 3–4 November extremum forecast.
⚠️ The nearest extremum forecast for gold falls on 10 November. The next pivot forecast is 17 November.
🛢 CRUDE OIL — with high probability, this is the 4th week of a new base cycle (28 weeks), though there’s still a chance the previous cycle continues, depending on next week’s developments. Crude remains above the daily MA20, within a correction from the 24–27 October pivot forecast.
👉 The 3 November pivot forecast produced a minor local bearish move from the daily MA50 down to the daily MA20. A moderate descending channel has formed — technically a flag pattern, which usually signals trend continuation. Let’s see what the trickster retro-Mercury shows on Monday, November 10 (see index).
💰 The long position opened on the 29 October pivot forecast closed on a trailing stop at breakeven. A short position was opened on the 3 November pivot forecast.
⚠️ The next extremum forecast for crude oil falls on 10–11 November. The nearest pivot forecast is 17 November.
#stocks #gold #crudeoil
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