👀 WEEKLY SUMMARY 24.11–28.11 / FORECAST
📉 S&P 500 — 2nd week of a new base cycle (avg. 20 weeks), which started on the 20 November pivot forecast. The previous base cycle lasted 16 weeks. The 20 November pivot forecast marked the midpoint of Mercury’s retrograde and was announced earlier this year in the post “Retro-Mercury 2025” (see index posts). Such aspects often carry the strength of an extremum forecast.
✔️ Last week I wrote: “By Friday’s close, all three indices — S&P, DJIA, and NASDAQ — flashed a bullish technical signal from the MA100 in a highly negative context: a bearish divergence on the DJIA and descending peaks on the S&P and NASDAQ, both capped by the MA20–MA50 cluster. The current base cycle (17 weeks) is mature enough to reach its bottom.”
👉 The maturity of the cycle, the MA100, and the midpoint of the retro-Mercury period turned out to be solid arguments for launching a new base cycle. The expected completion timing for this cycle is March 2026. Given the current bullish momentum and the distance to February, the new base cycle will likely be a bullish one, with its top forming in February 2026. The bull will be confirmed by a breakout above the strong resistance at 6920 on the S&P — corresponding to the 29 October pivot forecast. Until that happens, a bearish base cycle scenario cannot be ruled out.
👉 This timing aligns perfectly with my 2024–2030 crisis map (see index posts), which places the final market peak in February 2026 before the anticipated super-bear phase of 2026–2028. Depending on the character of the base cycle, this final peak could appear either as a new high (bullish scenario) or as a lower high (bearish scenario).
💰 A long position was opened on the 20 November extremum forecast.
⚠️ The nearest extremum forecast for U.S. stock indices falls on Monday, 1 December — a very strong geocosmic aspect that may trigger the formation of a double top on the S&P or other bearish patterns. The next pivot forecast is 9–10 December.
🏆 GOLD — presumably the 2nd week of a new base cycle (15–20+ weeks), which started on the 20 November pivot forecast. The previous base cycle lasted 14 weeks. The 20 November pivot forecast marked the midpoint of Mercury’s retrograde and was announced earlier this year in the post “Retro-Mercury 2025” (see index posts). Such aspects often act with the strength of an extremum forecast.
👉 To repeat: this remains a presumption, as uncertainty persists. The base cycle has not yet confirmed a bottom. A new cycle can begin from a breakout of a strong level, but without a new high, the continuation of the previous base cycle cannot be ruled out.
✔️ Last week I wrote: “The bear is weak. Remember, during retro-Mercury surprises are possible. A bull cannot be ruled out, as the current base cycle is nearing completion. For now, the situation looks like the formation of a new triangle.”
👉 The daily MA20 — where gold had hovered for two weeks — acted as a springboard, lifting gold above the upper boundary of the developing triangle. How serious this breakout is will become clear next week. Possible scenarios:
1️⃣ A strong bull of a new cycle, breaking the 17–20 October pivot forecast level and reaching a new high.
2️⃣ A second top near the 17–20 October pivot level, extending the current cycle.
3️⃣ A false breakout followed by a bear move, breaking below the 29 October and 4 November extremum forecast levels.
💰 A long position was opened on the 20 November extremum forecast.
⚠️ The nearest extremum forecast for gold falls on 1 December — a very strong geocosmic aspect. The retro-Mercury period ends on Saturday. The next pivot forecast is 9–10 December.
🛢 CRUDE OIL — possibly the 7th week of a new base cycle (28 weeks). However, the final stage of the previous cycle (30th week) cannot be ruled out, depending on next week’s developments. To understand the market’s current structure, it’s crucial to know where we are: the last phase of the current base cycle or the first phase of a new one. The key question now is what happens near the 17–20 October pivot forecast level — a potential double bottom or a bearish breakdown. Technically, the situation does not favor the bulls. The bears are pressing hard.
👉 The Jupiter–Uranus conjunction of April 2024 (see index posts) — in three previous cases (1969, 1983, and 1996) — led to immediate price corrections and 2–3-year bear markets, while in the most recent instance, in 2010, it produced a three-year sideways trend followed by the 2014 crude collapse. Considering that the current sideways trend began in autumn 2022, the time for the oil bears to awaken has likely come. In this context, the post “Reset Cycle — Russian Roulette” remains relevant.
💰 The short position opened on the 17 November pivot forecast closed on a trailing stop at breakeven or with a small gain. A long position was opened on the 26 November pivot forecast (announced as a weak aspect).
⚠️ The next extremum forecast for crude oil falls on 10 December. The next pivot forecast is 1 December (a strong aspect).
#stocks #gold #crudeoil
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