👀 WEEKLY SUMMARY 29.9–3.10 / FORECAST

📉 S&P 500 – 10th week of the base cycle (avg. 20 weeks), which started on the 4 Aug. extremum-forecast. Last week I wrote:

"Friday closed on a bullish impulse, but geocosmic pressure remains."
👉 That’s exactly what happened: Friday’s bullish impulse worked through a technical signal without any aspect support. On Wednesday, outside regular trading hours, a sharp drawdown hit due to the U.S. shutdown, taking out part of the long positions. I also noted the potential impact of the Oct. 1 shutdown in last week’s post. The week closed with an indecisive candle on the index and a bearish candle on the active futures contract.

💰 The short position opened on the 22 Sep. extremum-forecast was closed at trailing stop with no loss. Aggressive traders who exited at the daily MA20 target captured about $4K per ES contract.

💰 Friday’s 26 Sep. close produced a bullish technical signal without correlation to any geocosmic aspect. My long position on this signal was taken out by Wednesday’s drawdown with no loss. Let’s just say I suffered from the shutdown. Strong hands likely held on to that long.

⚠️ A pivot-forecast falls on Mon. 6 Oct. It’s more connected with gold, but it may well play out in equities too. The next extremum-forecast for U.S. stock indexes is Tue. 14 Oct.

🏆 GOLD – 7th week of the base cycle (15–20+ weeks), which started on the 25 Aug. extremum-forecast. Remarkably, the Mars-in-Scorpio phenomenon is proving effective in breaking resistance, even after an extended bullish run. On this geocosmic event — which occurs every two years and shows strong correlation with gold rallies — see the separate post.

👉 At the same time, Mon. 6 Oct. brings an aspect event with strong correlation to gold trend tops. Thus, the bearish pivot-forecast for 6 Oct. conflicts with the bullish Mars-in-Scorpio phenomenon. We’ll see how it resolves: will this aspect stall or reverse the current trend? Technically, gold has room for a correction back to the upper edge of the broken triangle.

☝️ Precious metals are acting as if staging a spectacular finale. The current gold dynamics look highly improbable. Such behavior occurred only once before, in 1980, when chasing the rally ended in serious losses. There is nothing normal or sustainable in what we’re seeing now in gold and silver. Late investors who treat gold as a “safe haven” risk discovering soon that at the peak of an extended 15-year cycle this asset may be far riskier than it appears.

💰 The long position from the 22 Sep. extremum-forecast remains open. Given the very bullish geocosmos, one can afford to keep a fairly loose stop.

⚠️ Next pivot-forecasts for gold: 6 Oct. and 13–14 Oct. The next extremum-forecast falls on 3–4 Nov.

🛢 CRUDE OIL – 22nd week of the base cycle (28 weeks). No miracle this time. The base cycle continues, and the second phase is taking on increasingly bearish traits. A modest reversal candle off the upper Bollinger band unleashed a significant bearish trend without correlation to any notable geocosmic aspect. Technically, the major support around 61 on the active futures contract was broken on Thursday.

💰 The long position from the 23 Sep. extremum-forecast was closed at trailing stop. The working amplitude of that move in CL futures was about $2K per contract. On the reversal candle of 26 Sep. (Mon.), a short position was opened.

⚠️ The next extremum-forecast for crude oil is Tue. 14 Oct.

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