👀 WEEKLY SUMMARY 1.9–5.9 / FORECAST

📉 S&P 500 – 22nd week of the base cycle (avg. 20 weeks). The current base cycle is at the edge of maturity, where reversals often form. By Friday’s close, S&P once again showed signs of a reversal from a new ATH. Against the backdrop of fresh highs in S&P and DJIA, a bearish divergence with NASDAQ persists (see chart).

💰 The short position opened on Friday’s technical signal from the 27 Aug pivot-forecast impulse was closed by trailing stop at breakeven. On the 1 Sept pivot-forecast (previously noted for gold and crude oil), a long position was opened.

⚠️ The next extreme-forecast for US equity indices falls on Monday, 8 Sept — a strong forecasting aspect with high potential for surprises. The following extreme-forecast for US stocks is on 22 Sept.



🏆 GOLD – 3rd week of the new base cycle (15–20+ weeks). Finally, the long-awaited bullish breakout. The bulky technical formation turned out to be a continuation triangle.

👌 The 25 Aug extreme-forecast still worked and triggered the start of a new base cycle, breaking through MA20 and MA50 on the daily chart. Technically, the reversal showed up within tolerance for the extreme-forecast — two trading days earlier, on 20 Aug. At that point, a long position was opened on a strong technical signal from the lower edge of the major 20-week triangle.

👉 With the bullish breakout of the triangle, it’s triumph time for the gold bugs. The question is — for how long? Gold and equities both surged on the insane liquidity injected during Covid. Both assets are tied to money supply and essentially behave like risk assets: they rise together, they fall together. The probability of a 15-year cycle top in 2025 — as discussed in previous posts — still exists theoretically, but for now that concept is shelved.

💰 The long position in gold from the 20 Aug technical signal closed by trailing stop. The working amplitude of this move in GC futures was about $20K per contract. Stronger hands, moving their primary stop less aggressively than I do, may have managed to keep this long open. A strong extreme-forecast lies ahead.

⚠️ The next extreme-forecast for gold falls on Monday, 8 Sept. The following one is on 22 Sept.


🛢 CRUDE OIL – 18th week of the base cycle (28 weeks). Phase 2, apparently bearish. A week ago, I wrote:

“The next extreme-forecast for crude oil is on Monday, 1 Sept. This is a powerful forecasting aspect, specifically tied to crude oil, which could impact global supply volumes.”

☝️ The 1 Sept extreme-forecast firmly reversed crude oil into an energetic bearish trend, breaking through all major moving averages on both daily and weekly charts.

💰 The long opened on the 27 Aug pivot-forecast was closed by trailing stop at breakeven. More aggressive traders taking profit at targets could have exited with solid gains thanks to the 1 Sept extreme-forecast. On that 1 Sept extreme-forecast, a short position was opened.

⚠️ The next extreme-forecast for crude oil falls on 8 Sept.


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