👀 WEEKLY SUMMARY 8.9–12.9 / FORECAST
📈 S&P 500 – at this point it’s fair to conclude that we are most likely in the 7th week of a new base cycle (avg. 20 weeks), which began on the Aug 4 extreme forecast. I already made this assumption three weeks ago in my Aug 23 post:
"Where are we now: the 20th week of the current base cycle (avg. 20 weeks) or the 4th week of a new base cycle? For a mature base cycle, this bull is too lively. The fact is that sometimes, in strong bull markets, a new base cycle can start on a breakout with almost no correction. It’s possible that the base cycle low was reached on the Aug 1–4 extreme forecast. The stock market may well be in the 4th week of a new base cycle."
☝️ The Aug 4 extreme forecast was announced earlier this year. It coincided with the midpoint of Mercury retrograde, once again proving its forecasting effectiveness.
👉 Two weeks ago I wrote: “The technical picture remains resilient, confirming the long-term bull trend.” The Sept 8 extreme forecast didn’t come without promised surprises, and after Friday’s correction a powerful aspect pushed the market higher from the daily MA20 on a technical signal. By the end of the week, the market broke through the last bearish divergence with NASDAQ. The forecast for a major reversal in the context of the 7-year crisis cycle has now shifted to February 2026 — a period already highlighted on the 2024–2030 crisis map.
💰 The long position opened on a technical signal at the Sept 1 pivot forecast (previously mentioned for gold and crude oil) remains active. The trailing stop on this position was not triggered during the week.
⚠️ The next extreme forecast for US stock indexes falls on Monday, Sept 22.
🏆 GOLD – 4th week of a new base cycle (15–20+ weeks). The strong Sept 8 extreme forecast paused and held back gold’s powerful bull trend all week, which had started on the breakout of a continuation triangle. The potential remains for a corrective pullback to the upper edge of the broken triangle.
💰 Strong hands, who trail their primary stop less aggressively, continue to hold long gold positions. This long was opened on Aug 20 from a strong technical signal off the lower edge of the large 20-week triangle.
⚠️ The next extreme forecast for gold falls on Monday, Sept 22.
🛢 CRUDE OIL – 19th week of the base cycle (28 weeks). 2nd phase, possibly bearish. The week, which started brightly from the Sept 8 extreme forecast off support, ended with no result. Crude oil is once again resting on the support area near 61 on the current futures contract, remaining below all major moving averages on both daily and weekly charts.
💰 The short position opened on the Sept 1 extreme forecast closed at the trailing stop breakeven. More aggressive traders who exited at targets aligned with the Sept 8 extreme forecast and the 61 support level could have closed with a solid profit. The long opened on the Sept 8 extreme forecast also closed at the trailing stop breakeven.
⚠️ The next extreme forecast for crude oil falls on Sept 23. There is also a pivot forecast on Sept 15.
#stocks #gold #crudeoil
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