👀 WEEKLY SUMMARY 20.10–24.10 / FORECAST
📉 S&P 500 — 13th week of the base cycle (avg. 20 weeks), which started on the 4 August extremum forecast. The market is now in the second phase of the base cycle, which began from the local support level at 6500 and the MA50 on the 14 October extremum forecast. On Friday, all three major indices finally broke through the daily range of October 10 and reached new highs. All the bullish signs of both the second phase and the current base cycle are in place. The euphoria continues — moving with the flow.
💰 Strong hands with stops below the MA50 are holding the long position opened on the 14 October extremum forecast. The entry was technically challenging, though another opportunity to open a long position appeared on the 17 October pivot forecast. Many positions with tight stops were shaken out by volatility.
⚠️ The next extremum forecast for U.S. stock indices falls on 3 November. The nearest pivot forecast is 24–27 October.
🏆 GOLD — 10th week of the base cycle (15–20+ weeks), which started on the 25 August extremum forecast. A difficult reversal, just as I warned last week:
“Friday’s bearish candles in gold and silver on the 17 October pivot forecast are not necessarily reversal points of the current cycle. With Mars in Scorpio, this reversal will not come easily.”
👉 It’s no coincidence that the pivot forecast covered two trading days — October 17 and 20. On Monday, after Friday’s bearish candle, gold made another all-time high, testing the resilience of bearish stops — and only then turned into a record-breaking downtrend.
👉 The bullish Mars-in-Scorpio period ends in a week. Through social media and mass media, a huge number of weak hands have been lured into the precious metals market. Considering gold’s long-term cycles, 2025 marks the 10th year of the current 15-year cycle. The tops of both previous bullish 15-year cycles were reached in their 10th year. It’s quite possible that many professional players have already handed over their long positions to the enthusiastic crowd. The probability of reaching a new high against this background is low.
💰 The long position opened on the 22 September extremum forecast was held for nearly the entire Mars-in-Scorpio period (see chart) and closed on a trailing stop. The working amplitude of this move on the GC futures was about $45K per contract. A short position was opened on the 17–20 October pivot forecast.
⚠️ The next extremum forecast for gold falls on 3–4 November. The nearest pivot forecast is 24–27 October.
🛢 CRUDE OIL — 25th week of the base cycle or 2nd week of a new base cycle (28 weeks). Considering price dynamics, it’s most likely the second week of a new base cycle. Last week I wrote:
“The bottom of the current base cycle in crude may be reached in the coming weeks at one of the extremum or pivot forecasts.”
👉 The previous base cycle lasted 22 weeks. The one before that — 23 weeks. The new base cycle (if that’s what we’re seeing) started on the 17–20 October pivot forecast, bouncing off the lower edge of the weekly Bollinger band. Note how the 22 October extremum forecast (a strong aspect) coincided with Trump’s statement on sanctions against Russian crude.
👉 Over the past three years, the last six base cycles have remained within a narrow price range. From a long-term perspective, I continue to lean toward the bearish 2010 scenario, the reasons for which I’ve detailed earlier (see post index). The Jupiter–Uranus conjunction that took place in April 2024, in three previous cases (1969, 1983, and 1996), led to an immediate price correction and a 2–3-year bear market; in the most recent instance, in 2010, it resulted in a three-year sideways trend followed by a crude oil collapse in 2014.
💰 The short position opened on the 8 October pivot forecast closed on a trailing stop. The working amplitude of this move on the CL futures was about $4K per contract. A long position was opened on the 17–20 October pivot forecast.
⚠️ The next extremum forecast for crude oil falls on 11 November. The nearest pivot forecasts are 24–27 October and 3–4 November.
#stocks #gold #crudeoil
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