REVERSALS AND TRENDS

📉 S&P 500 — 2nd week of a new base cycle (avg. 20 weeks), which started on the 20 November pivot forecast. The previous base cycle lasted 16 weeks. The 20 November pivot forecast marked the midpoint of Mercury’s retrograde and was announced earlier this year in the post “Retro-Mercury 2025” (see index posts). Such aspects often carry the strength of an extremum forecast. ✔️ Last week I wrote: “By Friday’s close, all three indices — S&P, DJIA, and NASDAQ — flashed a bullish technical signal from the MA100 in a highly negative context: a bearish divergence on the DJIA and descending peaks on the S&P and NASDAQ, both capped by the MA20–MA50 cluster. The current base cycle (17 weeks) is mature enough to reach its bottom.” 👉 The maturity of the cycle, the MA100, and the midpoint of the retro-Mercury period turned out to be solid arguments for launching a new base cycle. The expected completion timing for this cycle is March 2026. Given the current bullish momentum and the di...

📉 S&P 500 — 17th week of the base cycle (avg. 20 weeks), which started on the 4 August extremum forecast. The rollercoaster action on Thursday — across the full range of supports and resistances from the MA20 to the MA100 — was a textbook display of Mercury’s retrograde effect. The 20 November pivot forecast marks the midpoint of the retrograde period and was mentioned earlier this year in the post “Retro-Mercury 2025.” Such aspects often act with the strength of an extremum forecast. 👉 By Friday’s close, all three indices — S&P, DJIA, and NASDAQ — flashed a bullish technical signal from the MA100, though within a strongly negative context: a bearish divergence on the DJIA and descending peaks on the S&P and NASDAQ, both capped by the MA20–MA50 cluster. The current base cycle (17 weeks) is mature enough to reach its bottom. 👉 If this marks the start of a new base cycle, there’s a chance it could turn out to be bearish. The 1 December extremum forecast — built on a powe...

📉 S&P 500 — 16th week of the base cycle (avg. 20 weeks), which started on the 4 August extremum forecast. In the first week of Mercury’s retrograde, the trickster showed his full potential. The energetic bull on Monday–Tuesday was replaced by an aggressive bear on Wednesday–Thursday. All this lively action ended in a flat Friday close — right where the market had been a week earlier. Classic retro-Mercury behavior: sudden reversals and frequent whipsaw movements (see index posts on retro-Mercury). 👉 By Friday’s close, the DJIA formed a bearish divergence, while the S&P and NASDAQ printed lower highs. At the same time, both S&P and NASDAQ formed a double bottom and bullish candles. The current base cycle (16 weeks) is mature enough to reach its low. Starting Monday, November 17, a series of strong geocosmic aspects are expected, which, combined with retro-Mercury, could bring volatility and mixed sentiment to index movements. 👉 Last week I wrote: “The bearish week ended...

🔺 A new bomb is ticking beneath the U.S. financial system — this time in the commercial real estate sector. While the Fed debates inflation, the real problem lies deeper: $4.9 trillion in mortgages have been issued against offices, malls, and warehouses — nearly double the amount tied to housing in 2008. Already one in eight commercial mortgages is in default — the worst rate on record. 🔺 Bank balance sheets are stuffed with “toxic” securities that not long ago were considered safe: they were backed by real properties and corporate tenants with stable cash flows. But the economy has changed — e-commerce and remote work have crushed demand for offices and retail space. Buildings stand empty, rental streams have dried up, and vacancy rates continue to rise year after year. 🔺 In theory, banks can repossess the properties — but there are no buyers. Keeping them on the books means losses; repurposing them is nearly impossible; selling at collateral value — unrealistic. 🔺 The Fed can’...

🔺 Signs of an AI bubble are becoming increasingly clear: stock valuations have reached dangerous heights, corporate debt is rising, and a sustainable business model has yet to emerge. Against this backdrop, investor Michael Burry — who famously predicted the 2008 mortgage crisis — has placed a bet against the leaders of the AI market: Nvidia and Palantir. His fund, Scion Asset Management, acquired options that will profit if their shares decline. The positions are estimated at roughly $900 million in Palantir and $200 million in Nvidia. 🔺 The move is telling: Burry clearly sees parallels with the dot-com bubble. Nvidia is now valued at nearly $5 trillion, and Palantir has tripled in price over the past year — yet much of this growth is driven by expectations rather than solid earnings. Excessive multiples, massive data-center investments, and cross-holdings among AI companies are fueling a loop of self-sustaining euphoria. 🔺 For traders and investors, this is a signal that the “ba...

📉 S&P 500 — 15th week of the base cycle (avg. 20 weeks), which started on the 4 August extremum forecast. The 3–4 November extremum forecast halted the bear at the daily MA20 but failed to reverse it. The bearish week ended with a bullish candle bouncing off the daily MA50. 👉 On Monday, November 10, a powerful aspect cluster arrives — featuring our old acquaintance, retrograde Mercury. The dates of this period were published in a dedicated post earlier this year (see index). Surprises are likely across markets. In this context, one could even assume the end of the second phase and the start of a new base cycle — and as we know, the beginning of any cycle is always bullish. However, the trickster Mercury can easily shuffle all the cards. 💥 The stock market remains surrounded by ominous signs — from the AI frenzy and Buffett’s money bags to the commercial real estate crisis and the Hindenburg Omen. I continue to adhere to the long-term strategy based on the 7-year and 18-year cr...

🔺 The “Hindenburg Omen” is a technical indicator that warns of potential market crashes. It was created by Jim Miekka, a blind mathematician with no formal financial education. The name refers to the Hindenburg airship disaster — a symbol of sudden collapse. 🔺 The signal reflects an internal split within the market: some stocks are making new yearly highs while others are hitting new lows. This means that growth and decline are happening simultaneously, and the overall trend is losing stability. For the signal to trigger, more than 2.8% of NYSE stocks must reach new highs and an equal percentage must reach new lows, while the index remains above its 50-day moving average and the McClellan Oscillator is negative. 🔺 When all these conditions align, the market is considered “unstable from within.” If the signal appears repeatedly, the probability of a serious correction rises sharply. 🔺 The Omen has preceded major crashes — in 1987, 2000, and 2008 — and reappeared again in late Oct...

🔺 In its latest quarterly report, Berkshire Hathaway revealed that it sold another $6.1 billion worth of stocks during the three months ending September 30. This isn’t an isolated case: over the past three years, Warren Buffett’s conglomerate has unloaded nearly $184 billion in equities — all while continuing to pile up cash. 🔺 By the end of the quarter, Berkshire’s cash and equivalents had reached a record high of $382 billion. Buffett traditionally stays cautious during overvalued markets, and this move reads as a clear signal of restraint. Instead of joining the rally of “market leaders,” the company is locking in profits and waiting for a correction — an opportunity to re-enter the market at more attractive levels. 🔺 Notably, Berkshire hasn’t conducted a single share buyback for five consecutive quarters — another sign that Buffett sees no reasonable entry points, even in his own business. 🔺 With record reserves and the cautious tone of recent comments, Berkshire is effectiv...

🔺 Today, the structure of the U.S. stock market looks like a caricature of diversification. Just 41 AI-related stocks make up only 8% of the S&P 500’s composition — yet they already account for 47% of its total market capitalization, an all-time record. The remaining 459 stocks, the vast majority of the index, represent only 53% of its capitalization. This means that the fate of the “broad” market now depends on a handful of companies betting on the same fashionable idea. 🔺 The driving force behind it all is a dozen corporate giants that not only profit from the AI hype but also amplify it in sync through endless declarations about a “revolutionary future.” In reality, most of these promises have yet to translate into actual gains in efficiency or profits. These companies reinforce each other in a coordinated loop — shared press releases, cross-integrations, mutual sales — all to sustain the illusion of exponential growth. 🔺 The market now exists in a state of self-sustaining ...

📉 S&P 500 — 14th week of the base cycle (avg. 20 weeks), which started on the 4 August extremum forecast. The market is now in the second bullish phase of the base cycle, which began from the local support at 6500 and the MA50 on the 14 October extremum forecast. All three major indices reversed on the 29 October pivot forecast, which I highlighted last week in the test daily reviews. By the close of Wednesday, October 29, a strong technical sell signal appeared. 👉 There’s a lot of talk about the “Hindenburg Omen” — when a large number of new 52-week highs and lows occur simultaneously. Such divergence often precedes reversals and sharp corrections, though the trigger doesn’t fire in a single day, and it’s never a 100% certainty. Historically, this indicator has appeared ahead of major panics — in 1987, 2000, and 2008. 💰 The long position opened on the 14 October extremum forecast or the 17 October pivot forecast closed on a trailing stop. The working amplitude of this move on...

👉 The market is not chaos. It has structure — and understanding that structure gives a trader an edge. Jim Dalton, one of the leading researchers of Market Profile, identifies key elements that help decode market dynamics. 🔺 Core concepts: During the first hour of trading, the Initial Balance forms — the range within which the market searches for equilibrium. When price moves beyond it, we speak of Range Extension. Throughout the day, a Value Area develops — roughly 70% of trading activity. On the chart, one can identify the Point of Control, where price spent the most time, as well as distinctive “tails” of buying or selling — signs of a brief market rejection of certain levels. 🔺 Six types of market days: 1️⃣ Normal Day — rare. A wide range forms immediately, with the market later testing its boundaries. 2️⃣ Normal Variation Day — the market breaks beyond the first hour’s range and builds a new value area. 3️⃣ Trend Day (standard) — one-directional movement under the control ...

📉 S&P 500 (ES), October 29. The market opened neutral, holding within the range between the MA20 and MA50. Early in the U.S. session, a short downward impulse met support at the lower Bollinger band. Price then recovered, closing the day near the MA20 — a sign of a pause in the correction. The overall structure of the day indicates a base forming after a local decline, though without confirmation of a reversal. 🌤 MACD remained in negative territory, while RSI held around 40–45, reflecting a weakening of the downward impulse. Signs of recovery appeared early next session, raising the likelihood of consolidation and a test of the 6950 level. 🪐 Geocosmos: the Mars–Saturn trine paused the trend, reinforcing a phase of alignment and temporary balance of forces. No significant new aspects were present that day; the geocosmic background remained relatively neutral. 🏆 GOLD (GC), October 29. After a moderate rise early in the European session, the market entered a corrective phase. B...

📉 S&P 500 (ES), October 28. The market spent the day in a moderately bullish phase. After a calm start during the early European session, price gradually strengthened, holding above the MA20 and forming a sequence of steady bullish candles. The impulse gained traction into the U.S. session as buyers pushed quotes toward the upper Bollinger band. Both MA20 and MA50 continue to diverge upward, confirming the persistence of short-term positive momentum. Toward the end of the trading day, the market stabilized within a narrow range — a typical consolidation following an impulsive rise. 🌤 MACD flattened near the zero line, reflecting balance after the upward wave. RSI remains in the 65–70 range, close to overbought territory, suggesting a possible pause. A sideways drift with attempts to update highs is likely early next session. 🪐 Geocosmos: the Mars–Saturn trine may influence the current trend, though the aspect is not among the strongest. 🏆 GOLD (GC), October 28. The market be...

📉 S&P 500 (ES), October 27. The day unfolded under a steady uptrend. From the open, the market stayed above the MA20, and closer to the U.S. session the bullish impulse strengthened: candles consistently closed near the upper Bollinger band, confirming buyer control. The MA20 shows a clear upward slope, while the MA50 supports the move from below, forming a technical cushion. Early next session on Tuesday, a brief consolidation appeared just below the local high — a pause before a potential impulse. 🌤 The MACD started to decline, forming a divergence with price — the first sign of slowing momentum. RSI remains in the 70–75 zone, indicating overbought conditions but without a reversal signal. In the short term, a pullback toward the MA20 (around 6880–6890) is possible, from which the trend may attempt to resume. 🪐 Geocosmos: the key transit of the day — the Sun–Pluto square — intensifies tension and raises the likelihood of sharp trend reversals. This is an aspect of power and ...

📉 S&P 500 — 13th week of the base cycle (avg. 20 weeks), which started on the 4 August extremum forecast. The market is now in the second phase of the base cycle, which began from the local support level at 6500 and the MA50 on the 14 October extremum forecast. On Friday, all three major indices finally broke through the daily range of October 10 and reached new highs. All the bullish signs of both the second phase and the current base cycle are in place. The euphoria continues — moving with the flow. 💰 Strong hands with stops below the MA50 are holding the long position opened on the 14 October extremum forecast. The entry was technically challenging, though another opportunity to open a long position appeared on the 17 October pivot forecast. Many positions with tight stops were shaken out by volatility. ⚠️ The next extremum forecast for U.S. stock indices falls on 3 November. The nearest pivot forecast is 24–27 October. 🏆 GOLD — 10th week of the base cycle (15–20+ weeks), w...

📉 S&P 500 — 12th week of the base cycle (avg. 20 weeks), which started on the 4 August extremum forecast. The U.S. government shutdown had a strong impact on the stock market, which stayed within the daily range of Friday, October 10, throughout the week. However, the local support level at 6500 and the MA50 held back Friday’s aggressive bear. On the 14 October extremum forecast, there were even some signs of hesitant growth. The picture in NASDAQ and DJIA looks similar. 👉 This is no longer the confident bull we saw in August and September. The current base cycle, now in its 12th week, has clearly reached peak maturity. Technically, the probability of making a new high in this cycle decreases with each passing day. For the base cycle to turn bearish, the market must close below the 4 August extremum — which still seems unlikely. Most likely, in the near term we’ll see the formation of an intermediate top or a double top at one of the upcoming extremum or pivot forecasts. 💰 The...

🔺 Friday, October 10, became the largest liquidation in the entire history of the crypto market. According to analysts, nearly $19 billion in positions were wiped out within minutes — almost twenty times more than during the March 2020 crash amid the pandemic. Many coins dropped by 80%, yet within half an hour the market recovered, and a day later everything looked like ordinary volatility. 🔺 The reason lies in the very architecture of the market. Almost the entire crypto volume is artificial. Market capitalization exists only on trading screens. No more than 2% of coins participate in real trading — and these volumes are fully controlled by market makers. They create liquidity, maintain the illusion of demand and stability, simulating genuine interest in assets. But when real players start selling, the system collapses instantly — simply because no one is able to absorb the actual volume. 🔺 The overnight crash became the first real stress test of the new cycle. It revealed how sy...

📉 S&P 500 – 11th week of the base cycle (avg. 20 weeks), which started on the 4 Aug. extremum forecast. Last week I wrote: “The week closed with an indecisive candlestick pattern on the index and a bearish candle on the active futures contract.” 👉 Geocosmic pressure persisted through the week, reflected in the market’s shaky technical setup. The pivot forecast on 6 Oct. stalled the bullish advance, while the 8 Oct. pivot triggered an aggressive bearish reversal on Friday. 👉 Friday’s bear erased the entire cyclical upswing since early September. The current base cycle no longer looks like a confident bull. For it to turn officially bearish, the market must close below the 4 Aug. extremum — still unlikely for now. We may be seeing the end of the first phase of the base cycle, potentially turning on one of the upcoming extremum or pivot forecasts: 14 Oct. or 20 Oct. ☝️ Unfortunately, the 8 Oct. pivot forecast wasn’t mentioned in last week’s post due to human error. This geocos...

🔺 This post continues the earlier article “The Cyclical Axiom of the Dollar.” Lately, there have been signs that the U.S. dollar may have reached an important turning point. After peaking in September 2022, the “buck” entered a prolonged downtrend — but the momentum now seems to be shifting. If this is indeed the start of a new upward dollar cycle, the implications could be global. Interestingly, this reversal aligns not only with long-term currency and precious metals cycles but — almost mystically — with political transitions in the U.S. 👉 Cycles and the Oval Office: Historically, the dollar has shown a curious pattern — it tends to peak under Democratic administrations and bottom under Republican ones. It’s not a strict rule, but the rhythm has been remarkably consistent. Look at 1992, 2008, and 2022 — all major turning points that coincided with, or shortly followed, shifts in political direction. The latest dollar peak in late 2022 under President Biden fits perfectly into th...