💲 USD: THE BEGINNING OF A NEW CYCLE?

🔺 This post continues the earlier article “The Cyclical Axiom of the Dollar.” Lately, there have been signs that the U.S. dollar may have reached an important turning point. After peaking in September 2022, the “buck” entered a prolonged downtrend — but the momentum now seems to be shifting. If this is indeed the start of a new upward dollar cycle, the implications could be global. Interestingly, this reversal aligns not only with long-term currency and precious metals cycles but — almost mystically — with political transitions in the U.S.

👉 Cycles and the Oval Office: Historically, the dollar has shown a curious pattern — it tends to peak under Democratic administrations and bottom under Republican ones. It’s not a strict rule, but the rhythm has been remarkably consistent. Look at 1992, 2008, and 2022 — all major turning points that coincided with, or shortly followed, shifts in political direction. The latest dollar peak in late 2022 under President Biden fits perfectly into this rhythm, and the subsequent decline has coincided with the rising forecasts of Trump’s comeback.

👉 Is it about politics? Not necessarily. The dollar doesn’t vote. It responds to capital flows, interest rates, risk perception — and, most importantly, long-term economic cycles. But since politics also follows these same economic rhythms, it often looks as if one drives the other. The result is a strange harmony where currency shifts and political transitions move almost in sync.

👉 Long-term dollar cycles typically last around 15 years. The previous one — from 1992 to 2008 — lasted 16 years. The current cycle — from the 2008 bottom to the 2022 peak — has already stretched to 17 years. By market standards, that’s “overtime.” A reversal isn’t just possible — it’s overdue.

👉 Dollar tops often come with drama and emotion — as in the early ’80s, mid-2000s, or late 2022. Bottoms, in contrast, tend to drag on, confusing both bulls and bears. That was the case in the early ’90s and again in the early 2010s — long phases of false starts and drawn-out consolidation. It looks like we’re entering a similar bottoming phase again.

👉 Yet beneath the surface noise, the cycle’s structure remains intact. The dramatic 2022 peak may mark the end of a previous era. And if history rhymes once more, we could now be in the very early phase of a long-term dollar revival — first slowly, then suddenly.

☝️ This doesn’t mean politics controls the markets. But long-term cycles often make politics look predictable. The dollar doesn’t care who wins the election — but judging by past cycles, it may have already chosen its direction.

🔺 As 2026 approaches, keep your focus on the cycle, not the headlines. If this truly is the birth of a new dollar bull market, the real surprise won’t be the rally itself — but how few saw it coming.

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