👀 WEEKLY SUMMARY 27.10–31.10 / FORECAST

📉 S&P 500 — 14th week of the base cycle (avg. 20 weeks), which started on the 4 August extremum forecast. The market is now in the second bullish phase of the base cycle, which began from the local support at 6500 and the MA50 on the 14 October extremum forecast. All three major indices reversed on the 29 October pivot forecast, which I highlighted last week in the test daily reviews. By the close of Wednesday, October 29, a strong technical sell signal appeared.

👉 There’s a lot of talk about the “Hindenburg Omen” — when a large number of new 52-week highs and lows occur simultaneously. Such divergence often precedes reversals and sharp corrections, though the trigger doesn’t fire in a single day, and it’s never a 100% certainty. Historically, this indicator has appeared ahead of major panics — in 1987, 2000, and 2008.

💰 The long position opened on the 14 October extremum forecast or the 17 October pivot forecast closed on a trailing stop. The working amplitude of this move on the ES futures was around $9K per contract. A short position was opened on the 29 October pivot forecast.

⚠️ The nearest extremum forecast for U.S. stock indices falls on 3 November. The next extremum forecast is on 10 November — a very strong aspect.

🏆 GOLD — 11th week of the base cycle (15–20+ weeks), which started on the 25 August extremum forecast. After an intense downtrend, the gold market is trying to form its second phase from the 29 October pivot forecast, which I highlighted last week in the test daily reviews.

👉 The daily MA20 represents a serious barrier for bulls, reinforced by a powerful geocosmic aspect on 3–4 November. A breakout above the MA20 or a rejection from it into a second wave of the bearish trend will be crucial for the structural formation of the second phase of the base cycle.

👉 The bullish Mars-in-Scorpio period fully played out in 2025. This year it coincided with a massive gold hysteria amplified by social media and mass media. The precious metals market is overcrowded with weak hands. Many professional participants have already handed over their long positions to the euphoric public. The situation is worsened by the fact that 2025 is the 10th year of the current 15-year cycle, while the tops of both previous bullish 15-year cycles were reached in their 10th year.

💰 The short position opened on the 17–20 October pivot forecast remains active, as there was no formal reason to close it. Some traders might have taken profit at the 29 October pivot forecast, capturing a solid gain. The working amplitude of this move on the GC futures by the 29 October close was around $30K per contract.

⚠️ The nearest extremum forecast for gold falls on 3–4 November. The next one — 10 November — a very strong aspect.

🛢 CRUDE OIL — with a high degree of probability, this is the 3rd week of a new base cycle (28 weeks). The beginning of any cycle is typically bullish, reflected in the uptrend from the 17–20 October pivot forecast. This week, crude managed to hold above the daily MA20 after a minor correction from the 24–27 October pivot forecast. Friday closed with a bullish impulse from the 29 October pivot forecast, which I highlighted last week in the test daily reviews. Both daily and weekly setups remain bullish.

👉 Over the past three years, the last six base cycles have stayed within a narrow price range. In the long term, I remain bearish under the 2010 scenario, which I’ve described in detail earlier (see post index). The Jupiter–Uranus conjunction in April 2024, in three previous cases (1969, 1983, and 1996), led to an immediate price correction and a 2–3-year bear market, while in the most recent case — 2010 — it resulted in a three-year sideways trend followed by a crude collapse in 2014.

💰 The long position opened on the 17–20 October pivot forecast closed on a trailing stop. The working amplitude of this move on the CL futures was nearly $4K per contract. The short position opened on the 24–27 October pivot forecast closed on a trailing stop at breakeven. A new long position was opened on the 29 October pivot forecast.

⚠️ The next extremum forecast for crude oil falls on 10–11 November. The nearest pivot forecast is 3–4 November.

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