REVERSALS AND TRENDS

👉 The market is not chaos. It has structure — and understanding that structure gives a trader an edge. Jim Dalton, one of the leading researchers of Market Profile, identifies key elements that help decode market dynamics. 🔺 Core concepts: During the first hour of trading, the Initial Balance forms — the range within which the market searches for equilibrium. When price moves beyond it, we speak of Range Extension. Throughout the day, a Value Area develops — roughly 70% of trading activity. On the chart, one can identify the Point of Control, where price spent the most time, as well as distinctive “tails” of buying or selling — signs of a brief market rejection of certain levels. 🔺 Six types of market days: 1️⃣ Normal Day — rare. A wide range forms immediately, with the market later testing its boundaries. 2️⃣ Normal Variation Day — the market breaks beyond the first hour’s range and builds a new value area. 3️⃣ Trend Day (standard) — one-directional movement under the control ...

📉 S&P 500 (ES), October 29. The market opened neutral, holding within the range between the MA20 and MA50. Early in the U.S. session, a short downward impulse met support at the lower Bollinger band. Price then recovered, closing the day near the MA20 — a sign of a pause in the correction. The overall structure of the day indicates a base forming after a local decline, though without confirmation of a reversal. 🌤 MACD remained in negative territory, while RSI held around 40–45, reflecting a weakening of the downward impulse. Signs of recovery appeared early next session, raising the likelihood of consolidation and a test of the 6950 level. 🪐 Geocosmos: the Mars–Saturn trine paused the trend, reinforcing a phase of alignment and temporary balance of forces. No significant new aspects were present that day; the geocosmic background remained relatively neutral. 🏆 GOLD (GC), October 29. After a moderate rise early in the European session, the market entered a corrective phase. B...

📉 S&P 500 (ES), October 28. The market spent the day in a moderately bullish phase. After a calm start during the early European session, price gradually strengthened, holding above the MA20 and forming a sequence of steady bullish candles. The impulse gained traction into the U.S. session as buyers pushed quotes toward the upper Bollinger band. Both MA20 and MA50 continue to diverge upward, confirming the persistence of short-term positive momentum. Toward the end of the trading day, the market stabilized within a narrow range — a typical consolidation following an impulsive rise. 🌤 MACD flattened near the zero line, reflecting balance after the upward wave. RSI remains in the 65–70 range, close to overbought territory, suggesting a possible pause. A sideways drift with attempts to update highs is likely early next session. 🪐 Geocosmos: the Mars–Saturn trine may influence the current trend, though the aspect is not among the strongest. 🏆 GOLD (GC), October 28. The market be...

📉 S&P 500 (ES), October 27. The day unfolded under a steady uptrend. From the open, the market stayed above the MA20, and closer to the U.S. session the bullish impulse strengthened: candles consistently closed near the upper Bollinger band, confirming buyer control. The MA20 shows a clear upward slope, while the MA50 supports the move from below, forming a technical cushion. Early next session on Tuesday, a brief consolidation appeared just below the local high — a pause before a potential impulse. 🌤 The MACD started to decline, forming a divergence with price — the first sign of slowing momentum. RSI remains in the 70–75 zone, indicating overbought conditions but without a reversal signal. In the short term, a pullback toward the MA20 (around 6880–6890) is possible, from which the trend may attempt to resume. 🪐 Geocosmos: the key transit of the day — the Sun–Pluto square — intensifies tension and raises the likelihood of sharp trend reversals. This is an aspect of power and ...

📉 S&P 500 — 13th week of the base cycle (avg. 20 weeks), which started on the 4 August extremum forecast. The market is now in the second phase of the base cycle, which began from the local support level at 6500 and the MA50 on the 14 October extremum forecast. On Friday, all three major indices finally broke through the daily range of October 10 and reached new highs. All the bullish signs of both the second phase and the current base cycle are in place. The euphoria continues — moving with the flow. 💰 Strong hands with stops below the MA50 are holding the long position opened on the 14 October extremum forecast. The entry was technically challenging, though another opportunity to open a long position appeared on the 17 October pivot forecast. Many positions with tight stops were shaken out by volatility. ⚠️ The next extremum forecast for U.S. stock indices falls on 3 November. The nearest pivot forecast is 24–27 October. 🏆 GOLD — 10th week of the base cycle (15–20+ weeks), w...

📉 S&P 500 — 12th week of the base cycle (avg. 20 weeks), which started on the 4 August extremum forecast. The U.S. government shutdown had a strong impact on the stock market, which stayed within the daily range of Friday, October 10, throughout the week. However, the local support level at 6500 and the MA50 held back Friday’s aggressive bear. On the 14 October extremum forecast, there were even some signs of hesitant growth. The picture in NASDAQ and DJIA looks similar. 👉 This is no longer the confident bull we saw in August and September. The current base cycle, now in its 12th week, has clearly reached peak maturity. Technically, the probability of making a new high in this cycle decreases with each passing day. For the base cycle to turn bearish, the market must close below the 4 August extremum — which still seems unlikely. Most likely, in the near term we’ll see the formation of an intermediate top or a double top at one of the upcoming extremum or pivot forecasts. 💰 The...

🔺 Friday, October 10, became the largest liquidation in the entire history of the crypto market. According to analysts, nearly $19 billion in positions were wiped out within minutes — almost twenty times more than during the March 2020 crash amid the pandemic. Many coins dropped by 80%, yet within half an hour the market recovered, and a day later everything looked like ordinary volatility. 🔺 The reason lies in the very architecture of the market. Almost the entire crypto volume is artificial. Market capitalization exists only on trading screens. No more than 2% of coins participate in real trading — and these volumes are fully controlled by market makers. They create liquidity, maintain the illusion of demand and stability, simulating genuine interest in assets. But when real players start selling, the system collapses instantly — simply because no one is able to absorb the actual volume. 🔺 The overnight crash became the first real stress test of the new cycle. It revealed how sy...

📉 S&P 500 – 11th week of the base cycle (avg. 20 weeks), which started on the 4 Aug. extremum forecast. Last week I wrote: “The week closed with an indecisive candlestick pattern on the index and a bearish candle on the active futures contract.” 👉 Geocosmic pressure persisted through the week, reflected in the market’s shaky technical setup. The pivot forecast on 6 Oct. stalled the bullish advance, while the 8 Oct. pivot triggered an aggressive bearish reversal on Friday. 👉 Friday’s bear erased the entire cyclical upswing since early September. The current base cycle no longer looks like a confident bull. For it to turn officially bearish, the market must close below the 4 Aug. extremum — still unlikely for now. We may be seeing the end of the first phase of the base cycle, potentially turning on one of the upcoming extremum or pivot forecasts: 14 Oct. or 20 Oct. ☝️ Unfortunately, the 8 Oct. pivot forecast wasn’t mentioned in last week’s post due to human error. This geocos...

🔺 This post continues the earlier article “The Cyclical Axiom of the Dollar.” Lately, there have been signs that the U.S. dollar may have reached an important turning point. After peaking in September 2022, the “buck” entered a prolonged downtrend — but the momentum now seems to be shifting. If this is indeed the start of a new upward dollar cycle, the implications could be global. Interestingly, this reversal aligns not only with long-term currency and precious metals cycles but — almost mystically — with political transitions in the U.S. 👉 Cycles and the Oval Office: Historically, the dollar has shown a curious pattern — it tends to peak under Democratic administrations and bottom under Republican ones. It’s not a strict rule, but the rhythm has been remarkably consistent. Look at 1992, 2008, and 2022 — all major turning points that coincided with, or shortly followed, shifts in political direction. The latest dollar peak in late 2022 under President Biden fits perfectly into th...

📉 S&P 500 – 10th week of the base cycle (avg. 20 weeks), which started on the 4 Aug. extremum-forecast. Last week I wrote: "Friday closed on a bullish impulse, but geocosmic pressure remains." 👉 That’s exactly what happened: Friday’s bullish impulse worked through a technical signal without any aspect support. On Wednesday, outside regular trading hours, a sharp drawdown hit due to the U.S. shutdown, taking out part of the long positions. I also noted the potential impact of the Oct. 1 shutdown in last week’s post. The week closed with an indecisive candle on the index and a bearish candle on the active futures contract. 💰 The short position opened on the 22 Sep. extremum-forecast was closed at trailing stop with no loss. Aggressive traders who exited at the daily MA20 target captured about $4K per ES contract. 💰 Friday’s 26 Sep. close produced a bullish technical signal without correlation to any geocosmic aspect. My long position on this signal was taken out by...

🔺 The artificial intelligence boom has morphed into a construction frenzy: tech giants are pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into data centers, chips, and energy infrastructure. The scale is staggering — in just three years, investments have exceeded the entire cost of building the U.S. interstate highway system. A striking example is Ellendale, North Dakota, where amid two motels and a Dollar General store, a $15B AI plant is rising — equal to a quarter of the state’s GDP. 🔺 Optimists compare this moment to the Industrial Revolution, but the core problem is obvious: AI revenue remains minuscule. OpenAI, despite contracts worth tens of billions, will generate around $13B this year. Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Alphabet plan to invest nearly $400B by 2025 — more than the Apollo program. Yet most AI chips last only 3–5 years, and demand is limited: corporate clients resist paying more than $30 per month per employee. 🔺 Historical parallels are unsettling. In the late 1990s, te...