REVERSALS AND TRENDS

📉 S&P 500 — 2nd week of a new base cycle (avg. 20 weeks), which started on the 20 November pivot forecast. The previous base cycle lasted 16 weeks. The 20 November pivot forecast marked the midpoint of Mercury’s retrograde and was announced earlier this year in the post “Retro-Mercury 2025” (see index posts). Such aspects often carry the strength of an extremum forecast. ✔️ Last week I wrote: “By Friday’s close, all three indices — S&P, DJIA, and NASDAQ — flashed a bullish technical signal from the MA100 in a highly negative context: a bearish divergence on the DJIA and descending peaks on the S&P and NASDAQ, both capped by the MA20–MA50 cluster. The current base cycle (17 weeks) is mature enough to reach its bottom.” 👉 The maturity of the cycle, the MA100, and the midpoint of the retro-Mercury period turned out to be solid arguments for launching a new base cycle. The expected completion timing for this cycle is March 2026. Given the current bullish momentum and the di...

📉 S&P 500 — 17th week of the base cycle (avg. 20 weeks), which started on the 4 August extremum forecast. The rollercoaster action on Thursday — across the full range of supports and resistances from the MA20 to the MA100 — was a textbook display of Mercury’s retrograde effect. The 20 November pivot forecast marks the midpoint of the retrograde period and was mentioned earlier this year in the post “Retro-Mercury 2025.” Such aspects often act with the strength of an extremum forecast. 👉 By Friday’s close, all three indices — S&P, DJIA, and NASDAQ — flashed a bullish technical signal from the MA100, though within a strongly negative context: a bearish divergence on the DJIA and descending peaks on the S&P and NASDAQ, both capped by the MA20–MA50 cluster. The current base cycle (17 weeks) is mature enough to reach its bottom. 👉 If this marks the start of a new base cycle, there’s a chance it could turn out to be bearish. The 1 December extremum forecast — built on a powe...

📉 S&P 500 — 16th week of the base cycle (avg. 20 weeks), which started on the 4 August extremum forecast. In the first week of Mercury’s retrograde, the trickster showed his full potential. The energetic bull on Monday–Tuesday was replaced by an aggressive bear on Wednesday–Thursday. All this lively action ended in a flat Friday close — right where the market had been a week earlier. Classic retro-Mercury behavior: sudden reversals and frequent whipsaw movements (see index posts on retro-Mercury). 👉 By Friday’s close, the DJIA formed a bearish divergence, while the S&P and NASDAQ printed lower highs. At the same time, both S&P and NASDAQ formed a double bottom and bullish candles. The current base cycle (16 weeks) is mature enough to reach its low. Starting Monday, November 17, a series of strong geocosmic aspects are expected, which, combined with retro-Mercury, could bring volatility and mixed sentiment to index movements. 👉 Last week I wrote: “The bearish week ended...

🔺 A new bomb is ticking beneath the U.S. financial system — this time in the commercial real estate sector. While the Fed debates inflation, the real problem lies deeper: $4.9 trillion in mortgages have been issued against offices, malls, and warehouses — nearly double the amount tied to housing in 2008. Already one in eight commercial mortgages is in default — the worst rate on record. 🔺 Bank balance sheets are stuffed with “toxic” securities that not long ago were considered safe: they were backed by real properties and corporate tenants with stable cash flows. But the economy has changed — e-commerce and remote work have crushed demand for offices and retail space. Buildings stand empty, rental streams have dried up, and vacancy rates continue to rise year after year. 🔺 In theory, banks can repossess the properties — but there are no buyers. Keeping them on the books means losses; repurposing them is nearly impossible; selling at collateral value — unrealistic. 🔺 The Fed can’...

🔺 Signs of an AI bubble are becoming increasingly clear: stock valuations have reached dangerous heights, corporate debt is rising, and a sustainable business model has yet to emerge. Against this backdrop, investor Michael Burry — who famously predicted the 2008 mortgage crisis — has placed a bet against the leaders of the AI market: Nvidia and Palantir. His fund, Scion Asset Management, acquired options that will profit if their shares decline. The positions are estimated at roughly $900 million in Palantir and $200 million in Nvidia. 🔺 The move is telling: Burry clearly sees parallels with the dot-com bubble. Nvidia is now valued at nearly $5 trillion, and Palantir has tripled in price over the past year — yet much of this growth is driven by expectations rather than solid earnings. Excessive multiples, massive data-center investments, and cross-holdings among AI companies are fueling a loop of self-sustaining euphoria. 🔺 For traders and investors, this is a signal that the “ba...

📉 S&P 500 — 15th week of the base cycle (avg. 20 weeks), which started on the 4 August extremum forecast. The 3–4 November extremum forecast halted the bear at the daily MA20 but failed to reverse it. The bearish week ended with a bullish candle bouncing off the daily MA50. 👉 On Monday, November 10, a powerful aspect cluster arrives — featuring our old acquaintance, retrograde Mercury. The dates of this period were published in a dedicated post earlier this year (see index). Surprises are likely across markets. In this context, one could even assume the end of the second phase and the start of a new base cycle — and as we know, the beginning of any cycle is always bullish. However, the trickster Mercury can easily shuffle all the cards. 💥 The stock market remains surrounded by ominous signs — from the AI frenzy and Buffett’s money bags to the commercial real estate crisis and the Hindenburg Omen. I continue to adhere to the long-term strategy based on the 7-year and 18-year cr...

🔺 The “Hindenburg Omen” is a technical indicator that warns of potential market crashes. It was created by Jim Miekka, a blind mathematician with no formal financial education. The name refers to the Hindenburg airship disaster — a symbol of sudden collapse. 🔺 The signal reflects an internal split within the market: some stocks are making new yearly highs while others are hitting new lows. This means that growth and decline are happening simultaneously, and the overall trend is losing stability. For the signal to trigger, more than 2.8% of NYSE stocks must reach new highs and an equal percentage must reach new lows, while the index remains above its 50-day moving average and the McClellan Oscillator is negative. 🔺 When all these conditions align, the market is considered “unstable from within.” If the signal appears repeatedly, the probability of a serious correction rises sharply. 🔺 The Omen has preceded major crashes — in 1987, 2000, and 2008 — and reappeared again in late Oct...

🔺 In its latest quarterly report, Berkshire Hathaway revealed that it sold another $6.1 billion worth of stocks during the three months ending September 30. This isn’t an isolated case: over the past three years, Warren Buffett’s conglomerate has unloaded nearly $184 billion in equities — all while continuing to pile up cash. 🔺 By the end of the quarter, Berkshire’s cash and equivalents had reached a record high of $382 billion. Buffett traditionally stays cautious during overvalued markets, and this move reads as a clear signal of restraint. Instead of joining the rally of “market leaders,” the company is locking in profits and waiting for a correction — an opportunity to re-enter the market at more attractive levels. 🔺 Notably, Berkshire hasn’t conducted a single share buyback for five consecutive quarters — another sign that Buffett sees no reasonable entry points, even in his own business. 🔺 With record reserves and the cautious tone of recent comments, Berkshire is effectiv...

🔺 Today, the structure of the U.S. stock market looks like a caricature of diversification. Just 41 AI-related stocks make up only 8% of the S&P 500’s composition — yet they already account for 47% of its total market capitalization, an all-time record. The remaining 459 stocks, the vast majority of the index, represent only 53% of its capitalization. This means that the fate of the “broad” market now depends on a handful of companies betting on the same fashionable idea. 🔺 The driving force behind it all is a dozen corporate giants that not only profit from the AI hype but also amplify it in sync through endless declarations about a “revolutionary future.” In reality, most of these promises have yet to translate into actual gains in efficiency or profits. These companies reinforce each other in a coordinated loop — shared press releases, cross-integrations, mutual sales — all to sustain the illusion of exponential growth. 🔺 The market now exists in a state of self-sustaining ...

📉 S&P 500 — 14th week of the base cycle (avg. 20 weeks), which started on the 4 August extremum forecast. The market is now in the second bullish phase of the base cycle, which began from the local support at 6500 and the MA50 on the 14 October extremum forecast. All three major indices reversed on the 29 October pivot forecast, which I highlighted last week in the test daily reviews. By the close of Wednesday, October 29, a strong technical sell signal appeared. 👉 There’s a lot of talk about the “Hindenburg Omen” — when a large number of new 52-week highs and lows occur simultaneously. Such divergence often precedes reversals and sharp corrections, though the trigger doesn’t fire in a single day, and it’s never a 100% certainty. Historically, this indicator has appeared ahead of major panics — in 1987, 2000, and 2008. 💰 The long position opened on the 14 October extremum forecast or the 17 October pivot forecast closed on a trailing stop. The working amplitude of this move on...