REVERSALS AND TRENDS

📈 S&P 500 – 21st week of the base cycle (avg. 20 weeks) or 5th week of a new base cycle. The S&P shows signs of reversal off its ATH on the pivot forecast of August 27. The DJIA’s breakout above the winter extreme forecasts (Dec 9, Jan 29) and the summer pivot forecast (Jul 23, see weekly chart) stalled at the extreme forecast of Aug 25 and the pivot forecast of Aug 27. With S&P and DJIA pushing into new highs, a bearish divergence has emerged with NASDAQ (see chart). 👉 Despite the DJIA breakout, bears haven’t loosened their grip. The indices look vulnerable to a correction: cycles are approaching late phases, where reversals often form. Still, the technical picture remains solid, confirming the long-term bullish trend. In this environment, aggressive traders may capture quick profits on the short side — but that’s more of a tactical play than a signal of global trend exhaustion. The forecast for a major reversal within the 7-year crisis cycle is shifted to February 202...

📈 S&P 500 – 20th week of the base cycle (average 20 weeks) or 4th week of a new base cycle. Expectations voiced last week were confirmed. On Friday, the DJIA firmly broke above the winter highs at the levels of the extreme forecasts from December 9 and January 29, as well as the summer high at the pivot forecast from July 23 (see weekly chart). Thus, the bearish divergence with the S&P and Nasdaq, which we had been tracking recently, has been fully neutralized. 👉 It looks like the bulls broke free. In this context, the forecast of a major reversal within the 7-year crisis cycle shifts to February 2026. This date is also marked on the 2024–2030 crisis map. 👉 Where do we stand: the 20th week of the current base cycle (average 20 weeks) or the 4th week of a new one? For a mature base cycle, this bull looks too vigorous. Sometimes, in strong bull markets, a new base cycle can start right off the breakout level with virtually no correction. It is possible that the base cycle b...

🔺 Gold is back in the spotlight — and the déjà vu is hard to miss. Today’s market looks painfully similar to 2011, when the previous gold bubble was forming at the peak of the 15-year cycle. Yes, this cycle feels bigger — the system was flooded with COVID-era liquidity. But that hardly guarantees a different ending. Market history loves to rhyme, and gold is no exception. 🔺 Just three years ago, gold was drifting around $1,600, and the consensus was simple: “dead weight.” Today, the gold bar has become almost a mandatory portfolio asset — and that, in itself, is a warning sign. Gold should be bought only when nobody wants it. When every second investor is piling in, it’s hardly the right entry point for anyone with a horizon shorter than a decade. 🔺 Perhaps the clearest sign of overheating is that Costco is selling gold bars. It’s a textbook symbol of mass-market frenzy, bordering on the absurd. And it looks especially strange against today’s interest rates: the rational choice for ...

📉 S&P 500 – 19th week of the base cycle (average 20 weeks). The cycle is very mature. Sometimes extreme forecasts do not trigger a reversal but rather a breakout of an important level—especially under retrograde Mercury, and when there’s no clear technical signal. I warned about this in the post “Extremes and Pivots.” Last week, such an exception was the extreme forecast of August 11, which broke through the all-time high of July 31. Retro-Mercury the trickster did not pass without a surprise on the very last day of its phase, the dates of which I published earlier this year. 👉 The bigger story might be the fact that on Friday the DJIA made a new all-time high, negating the bearish divergence with the S&P and Nasdaq that we had been watching for the past few weeks. I wouldn’t call this breakout solid, but it’s a signal. If the DJIA manages to consolidate above current resistance, the forecast for a major reversal within the 7-year crisis cycle is pushed out to February 202...

☝️ I almost forgot to sum up the retrograde Venus in 2025, which lasted from March 3 to April 14. I published the post about retrograde Venus back in December 2024 . The results for S&P and gold are impressive. 🔺 The working amplitude of the short position from March 3 in the ES futures for the S&P 500 ranged from $24K to $37K per contract, depending on the exit strategy. 🔺 The working amplitude of the bearish move from my predicted triple top in the S&P 500 at the level of the extreme forecasts of December 9 and January 29 ranged from $37K to $50K per contract, depending on the exit strategy. In the February 9 post, I wrote: “By Friday’s close, we had signs of a double top at the level of the extreme forecasts of December 9 and January 29. Strong hands with stops above the double-top level should have held the short position from January 24.” 🔺 The working amplitude of the long position in gold from March 3 in the GC futures ranged from $40K to $50K per contract, ...

📉 S&P 500 – 18th week of the basic cycle (average 20 weeks). The cycle is very mature. Retrograde Mercury surprises keep coming. One of these surprises – a double trigger of an extreme forecast . This time the August 1–4 extreme forecast (midpoint of the retrograde Mercury period) signaled both a possible top of the basic cycle and an attempt to resume the bullish trend after a daily gap. 👉 Bearish intermarket divergence between S&P and DJIA remains intact. On Monday we get the end of the retrograde Mercury period and a very powerful extreme forecast. Based on the setup structure and the presence of a strong aspect, there is a chance of forming a double top. 💰 The short position opened on August 1 from the possible basic cycle top was closed at breakeven or with a small loss, depending on the exit method. A long position was opened on the August 4 extreme forecast. ☝️ In the context of the 7-year crisis cycle 2020–2028, we continue to closely monitor DJIA behavior. Will ...

📉 S&P 500 – Week 17 of the base cycle (average 20 weeks). The expected top of the base cycle arrived on the August 1 extreme forecast. I discussed this top in the previous post ; the forecast itself was issued at the beginning of the year . A logical target for this correction is the strong support zone around 6100–6120. A decisive breakdown of this support would significantly increase the odds of a summer bearish reversal within the broader 7-year crisis cycle (2020–2028), as outlined in the crisis roadmap . 🐻 Classic DJIA finally formed a textbook triple top at the levels of the December 9 and January 29 extreme forecasts (see weekly chart) and the July 23 pivot forecast. The bearish intermarket divergence remains intact. Unlike the S&P, DJIA faces no serious barriers on the downside. These factors raise the probability of a summer bearish reversal within the 7-year crisis cycle. 💰 The long position opened on the July 18 extreme forecast — on the breakout triggered by t...