👀 WEEKLY SUMMARY 4.8–8.8 / FORECAST

📉 S&P 500 – 18th week of the basic cycle (average 20 weeks). The cycle is very mature. Retrograde Mercury surprises keep coming. One of these surprises – a double trigger of an extreme forecast. This time the August 1–4 extreme forecast (midpoint of the retrograde Mercury period) signaled both a possible top of the basic cycle and an attempt to resume the bullish trend after a daily gap.

👉 Bearish intermarket divergence between S&P and DJIA remains intact. On Monday we get the end of the retrograde Mercury period and a very powerful extreme forecast. Based on the setup structure and the presence of a strong aspect, there is a chance of forming a double top.

💰 The short position opened on August 1 from the possible basic cycle top was closed at breakeven or with a small loss, depending on the exit method. A long position was opened on the August 4 extreme forecast.

☝️ In the context of the 7-year crisis cycle 2020–2028, we continue to closely monitor DJIA behavior. Will we see a summer bearish reversal, or will the forecast for the big bearish turn have to be pushed to February 2026? For that, DJIA needs a decisive breakout above the triple-top resistance. For now, I’m not entirely convinced DJIA is ready to break those highs.

⚠️ The nearest extreme forecast for US stock indices falls on Monday, August 11, after which the stock market will face two weeks without any significant energy barriers.


🏆 GOLD – 13th week of the new basic cycle (15–20+ weeks). The cycle is fairly mature. Just as gold bugs were starting to cheer up, retrograde Mercury threw another unpleasant surprise. After once again touching the resistance level in the thin, illiquid overnight market on Friday, gold printed a bearish key reversal. It is possible that the August 11 extreme forecast has already played out.

💰 The long position from the August 1 extreme forecast remains open. The trailing stop has been tightened. For traders who closed during Friday night’s rush at the resistance line target, the working amplitude of the GC futures move was about $18K per contract.

⚠️ The next extreme forecast for gold is on Monday, August 11. The retrograde Mercury period ends. Interestingly, after that, the gold market also faces two weeks without any significant energy barriers.

👉 The current basic cycle in gold structurally resembles a bearish basic cycle (see weekly chart). There is a possibility of a 15-year cycle top. A serious bearish intermarket divergence between gold and silver persists. Through social media and mass media, more and more weak hands are being drawn into the overheated precious metals market. Signs of gold fever are visible. It’s possible that the buying climax is already behind us.

👉 My long-term concept is outlined in the post on long gold cycles. 2025 is the 10th year of the current 15-year gold cycle. The tops of both previous bullish 15-year cycles occurred in year 10. It cannot be ruled out that the April–June 2025 triple top, which formed on the April 22 and June 16 extreme forecasts, was the buying climax and could be the top of the current 15-year cycle. This concept will only be invalidated by a decisive breakout above the resistance level of the April and June extreme forecasts.


🛢 CRUDE OIL – 14th week of the new basic cycle (28 weeks). Crude oil continues to swing between two strong support–resistance levels. By the way, note how precisely the August 1 extreme forecast marked the reversal from the resistance line. The short crude oil position from the August 1 extreme forecast remains open.

👉 At the moment, crude oil remains sluggish, but a decisive drop below the 65 level could dramatically change the picture. This level is traditionally a key one, and once broken, the market tends to display sharp bearish behavior.

⚠️ The next extreme forecast for crude oil is August 11.


Content Hub - Articles Index - Library / Archive

#stocks #gold #crudeoil

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

🗂 INDEX - REVERSALS & TRENDS

USEFUL STUFF -   Crisis Map 2024-2030 - Long Term Cycles of the US Stock Market -  7-year Crisis Cycle of the US Stock Market -  Medium-Term US Stock Market Cycle -  New 4-year Cycle of the US Stock Market -  50-week Cycle of US Stock Market -  Market Crashes and US Presidents -  The $50 Trillion Bubble - Long Term Gold Cycles -  The Dollar's Cyclical Axiom -  Bear 2025 in Numbers (2.0) - Extremes and Pivots - The Long Cycle of the Yen -  Dollar-Yen 34-year High - Jupiter and Uranus in Crude Oil Cycles -  Long Crude Oil Cycle -  Crude Oil Astrology (Part 1) -  Crude Oil Astrology (Part 2) - Peak of Market Cycles. The End of Gemini Chaos. - A Few Words about Retro-Mercury -  Retrograde Mercury 2024 - Retrograde Mercury 2025 - Retrograde Venus - Retrograde Venus 2025 in Numbers - Mars in Scorpio - Reset Cycle - Russian Roulette -  Illusions of Gold Bugs - Benner Cycles - In Company with a Demon - End of Taurus Euph...
Read more

📈 EXTREMES & PIVOTS

Image
👉 Extreme forecast and pivot forecast are proprietary terms I use in my work to describe time-based projections of potential market reversals. 👉 These forecasts are designed to support swing or position trading – to help open or close trades. The forecasted reversal date is based on astrological data, while confirmation (and actual trade execution) comes from cyclical and technical analysis as the date approaches. ☝️ Not every projected extreme or pivot will play out! It's not known in advance whether the reversal will mark a top or a bottom. For swing and position trading in futures, that’s not critical – what matters is the trend that follows. 👉 An extreme or pivot may hit within a margin of a couple of days. Occasionally, instead of triggering a reversal, the level breaks and confirms continuation. Extreme and pivot forecasts for the stock market and gold are usually synchronized, and may sometimes apply to crude oil as well. ☝️ As the projected date approaches, technic...
Read more

📈 LONG-TERM CYCLES OF THE U.S. STOCK MARKET (Update)

Image
☝️ Historical retrospectives show that the longest cycle of the U.S. stock market spans approximately 72 years . In recent history, there have been only three such supercycles . 1️⃣ The first supercycle ended with the Panic of 1857 , which gradually transitioned into the Long Depression of 1873–1879 . 2️⃣ The second supercycle ended with the Great Depression of 1929–1932 . 3️⃣ The third supercycle ended with the Great Recession – the financial crisis of 2007–2008 . 👉 Technically, the third supercycle ended in March 2009 on a hard Saturn–Uranus aspect , whose oppositions and conjunctions have a 100% correlation with long-term U.S. market cycles. We are currently at the beginning of the fourth supercycle . 👉 Each supercycle consists of two long-term cycles of approximately 36 years . These 36-year cycles are further divided into two phases of 18 years . Historically, most 18-year cycles fall in a range from 15 to 21 years . Given that 2024 is the 15th year of the current 1...
Read more