👀 WEEKLY SUMMARY 18.8–22.8 / FORECAST

📈 S&P 500 – 20th week of the base cycle (average 20 weeks) or 4th week of a new base cycle. Expectations voiced last week were confirmed. On Friday, the DJIA firmly broke above the winter highs at the levels of the extreme forecasts from December 9 and January 29, as well as the summer high at the pivot forecast from July 23 (see weekly chart). Thus, the bearish divergence with the S&P and Nasdaq, which we had been tracking recently, has been fully neutralized.

👉 It looks like the bulls broke free. In this context, the forecast of a major reversal within the 7-year crisis cycle shifts to February 2026. This date is also marked on the 2024–2030 crisis map.

👉 Where do we stand: the 20th week of the current base cycle (average 20 weeks) or the 4th week of a new one? For a mature base cycle, this bull looks too vigorous. Sometimes, in strong bull markets, a new base cycle can start right off the breakout level with virtually no correction. It is possible that the base cycle bottom was already set at the extreme forecast of August 1–4. The stock market may well be in the 4th week of a new base cycle.

💰 The long position opened at the August 4 extreme forecast was closed by trailing stop. The working amplitude of this move in ES futures was about $4K per contract. It is possible that the August 25 extreme forecast has already played out. A new long was opened on Thursday’s technical signal.

⚠️ The nearest extreme forecast for US stock indexes falls on August 25. There is also a pivot forecast on August 27. The next extreme forecast comes on September 8.


🏆 GOLD – 15th week of the base cycle (15–20+ weeks). The cycle is fairly mature, but the August 20 reversal does not look like the start of a new cycle. I believe the current base cycle in gold has formed a heavy bearish overhang on the weekly chart. Many interpret this technical formation as a continuation triangle, which cannot be ruled out either. It’s the market, and there are always two sides.

👉 I remain bearish on gold in the context of the 15-year cycle top, especially against the backdrop of the hype-driven Costco gold bar sales. Much has been written in previous posts about the 15-year cycle top. I will gladly join the bulls if gold convincingly breaks through the resistance at the April and June extreme forecast levels.

💰 The short position opened at the August 11 extreme forecast was closed by trailing stop. The working amplitude of this move in GC futures was about $6K per contract. A new long was opened on the August 20 technical signal.

⚠️ The nearest extreme forecast for gold falls on August 25. There is also a pivot forecast on August 27. The next extreme forecast comes on September 8.


🛢 CRUDE OIL – 16th week of the base cycle (28 weeks). Phase 2. The energy of the August 11 extreme forecast was enough to turn crude oil from a strong support level. The technical setup looks like the beginning of Phase 2 with an uptrend, as I wrote last week. A long was opened on the impulse from the August 11 extreme forecast.

⚠️ The next extreme forecast for crude oil is on September 1. There are also pivot forecasts on August 25 and August 27.


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