👀 WEEKLY SUMMARY 28.7–1.8 / FORECAST

📉 S&P 500 – Week 17 of the base cycle (average 20 weeks). The expected top of the base cycle arrived on the August 1 extreme forecast. I discussed this top in the previous post; the forecast itself was issued at the beginning of the year. A logical target for this correction is the strong support zone around 6100–6120. A decisive breakdown of this support would significantly increase the odds of a summer bearish reversal within the broader 7-year crisis cycle (2020–2028), as outlined in the crisis roadmap.

🐻 Classic DJIA finally formed a textbook triple top at the levels of the December 9 and January 29 extreme forecasts (see weekly chart) and the July 23 pivot forecast. The bearish intermarket divergence remains intact. Unlike the S&P, DJIA faces no serious barriers on the downside. These factors raise the probability of a summer bearish reversal within the 7-year crisis cycle.

💰 The long position opened on the July 18 extreme forecast — on the breakout triggered by the start of retrograde Mercury — was closed via trailing stop. The working amplitude of this move in ES futures was around $2K per contract. A short position was opened on the August 1 extreme forecast.

☝️ Within the 7-year crisis cycle, the next 1–2 weeks are critical. The big question is: on which of my extreme forecasts will the base cycle bottom for the S&P and DJIA form? Will we see a full summer bearish reversal, or will the forecast for the major reversal of the 2020–2028 cycle shift to February 2026, as shown in the crisis roadmap? In either case, a decisive breakout of the DJIA triple top resistance would be required. Is DJIA really ready to break those highs? Berkshire Hathaway’s cash position is already at 30% of total assets.

⚠️ The next extreme forecast for U.S. stock indexes falls on August 11.



🏆 GOLD – Week 12 of the new base cycle (15–20+ weeks). Classic retrograde Mercury: surprise breakouts of key levels, abrupt reversals, erratic price action, frequent stop-outs and missed targets. I’ve long warned about these trickster moves in my post on retrograde Mercury, and more recently reminded about it.

👉 Structurally, the current gold base cycle resembles a bearish one. There's a real possibility that the top of the 15-year cycle is behind us. A strong bearish intermarket divergence between gold and silver remains intact. Retail traders are being drawn into the overhyped silver market via social media and mass media. There are clear signs of gold hysteria. It's possible the buying climax has already occurred.

💰 That said: The short position from the July 23 pivot forecast was closed via trailing stop. The working amplitude of this move in GC futures ranged from $8K to $10K per contract, depending on exit method. A long position was opened on the August 1 extreme forecast (just in case 😁).

☝️ My long-term view is explained in the post on gold’s long cycles. 2025 is year 10 of the current 15-year gold cycle. The tops of both previous 15-year bull cycles were reached in year 10. It’s possible the triple top of April–June 2025, which aligned with the April 22 and June 16 extreme forecasts, was the buying climax and could mark the top of the current 15-year cycle. This concept would only be invalidated by a decisive breakout above the April–June resistance zone.

⚠️ The next extreme forecast for gold is on August 11.



🛢 CRUDE OIL – Week 13 of the new base cycle (28 weeks). The surge in crude activity promised in last week’s post has arrived, triggered by retrograde Mercury and several strong aspects. My broader view on crude remains bearish — you know that. No need for commentary fluff here — just track the extreme forecasts.

💰 I know some of the strong hands — who trail their stops less aggressively than I do — managed to hold onto the long position from the July 23 pivot forecast. That position was closed on August 1 via trailing stop. The working amplitude of that move in CL futures was $2K–$3K per contract depending on exit strategy. A short position was opened on the August 1 extreme forecast.

⚠️ The next extreme forecast for crude is on August 11.


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