👀 WEEKLY SUMMARY 25.8–29.8 / FORECAST

📈 S&P 500 – 21st week of the base cycle (avg. 20 weeks) or 5th week of a new base cycle. The S&P shows signs of reversal off its ATH on the pivot forecast of August 27. The DJIA’s breakout above the winter extreme forecasts (Dec 9, Jan 29) and the summer pivot forecast (Jul 23, see weekly chart) stalled at the extreme forecast of Aug 25 and the pivot forecast of Aug 27. With S&P and DJIA pushing into new highs, a bearish divergence has emerged with NASDAQ (see chart).

👉 Despite the DJIA breakout, bears haven’t loosened their grip. The indices look vulnerable to a correction: cycles are approaching late phases, where reversals often form. Still, the technical picture remains solid, confirming the long-term bullish trend. In this environment, aggressive traders may capture quick profits on the short side — but that’s more of a tactical play than a signal of global trend exhaustion. The forecast for a major reversal within the 7-year crisis cycle is shifted to February 2026, marked on the 2024–2030 crisis map.

💰 The long position opened on the Aug 25 extreme forecast closed on a trailing stop with a modest profit. On the Aug 27 pivot forecast impulse into Friday’s close, a fresh technical sell signal has emerged.

⚠️ Next extreme forecast for U.S. stock indices falls on September 8.

🏆 GOLD – 16th week of the base cycle (15–20+ weeks). The cycle is mature, locked in a sideways trend, while the Aug 20 reversal doesn’t yet look like the start of a new cycle. This week may finally show whether the multiweek technical formation was a bearish overhang or a continuation triangle. Yet even if the triangle breaks, the key question remains: is it a breakout, a breakout-with-retest, or a false breakout?

👉 I remain a bear on gold in the context of the 15-year cycle top, extensively covered in earlier posts. I’ll gladly join the bulls once gold confidently breaks the resistance of the April and June extreme forecasts.

💰 The long position in gold triggered on the Aug 20 technical signal remains open.

⚠️ Next extreme forecast for gold: September 8. There’s also a pivot forecast on September 1.

🛢 CRUDE OIL – 17th week of the base cycle (28 weeks). Phase 2. Last week’s pivot forecasts of Aug 25 and Aug 27 played out almost textbook-perfect on crude oil. On Aug 25 WTI reversed from the daily MA50 into a minor correction, while on Aug 27 it bounced back into the uptrend from the daily MA20.

💰 The long position opened on the Aug 11 extreme forecast impulse closed on a trailing stop with a modest profit. A fresh long was opened on the Aug 27 pivot forecast technical signal.

⚠️ Next extreme forecast for crude oil is Monday, September 1. This is a powerful forecast aspect tied specifically to crude oil supply, which may impact global market flows. The following extreme forecast for crude oil is September 8.

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