👀 WEEKLY SUMMARY 11.8–15.8 / FORECAST

📉 S&P 500 – 19th week of the base cycle (average 20 weeks). The cycle is very mature. Sometimes extreme forecasts do not trigger a reversal but rather a breakout of an important level—especially under retrograde Mercury, and when there’s no clear technical signal. I warned about this in the post “Extremes and Pivots.” Last week, such an exception was the extreme forecast of August 11, which broke through the all-time high of July 31. Retro-Mercury the trickster did not pass without a surprise on the very last day of its phase, the dates of which I published earlier this year.

👉 The bigger story might be the fact that on Friday the DJIA made a new all-time high, negating the bearish divergence with the S&P and Nasdaq that we had been watching for the past few weeks. I wouldn’t call this breakout solid, but it’s a signal. If the DJIA manages to consolidate above current resistance, the forecast for a major reversal within the 7-year crisis cycle is pushed out to February 2026. That date is marked on our 2024–2030 Crisis Map.

👉 It’s worth noting that the weekly setup of the DJIA looks fairly bullish. The only concern is the maturity of the cycle, though one cannot rule out that the cycle low was already set on the extreme forecast of August 1–4. In that case, the stock market could be in the 3rd week of a new base cycle.

💰 The good news is that we managed to hold the long position opened on the extreme forecast of August 4. So the market’s bullish behavior will only work in our favor.

⚠️ The next extreme forecast for U.S. stock indices falls on August 25. There is also a pivot forecast on August 27.



🏆 GOLD – 14th week of the base cycle (15–20+ weeks). The cycle is fairly mature. Take note of the textbook bearish key reversal that formed on the extreme forecast of August 11. The current base cycle of gold has created a heavy bearish overhang on the weekly chart, which may collapse at any moment. My view on gold in the context of the 15-year cycle top was outlined in the previous post.

💰 The long position from the August 1 extreme forecast was closed by a trailing stop. The working amplitude of this move on the GC futures was about $10K per contract. For those who closed during the overnight frenzy of the key reversal at resistance, the working amplitude was $18K per contract. A short position was opened on the extreme forecast of August 11.

⚠️ The next extreme forecast for gold is August 25. There is also a pivot forecast on August 27.



🛢 CRUDE OIL – 15th week of the base cycle (28 weeks). On the extreme forecast of August 11, crude oil ran into a strong support level. A confident break below this level could trigger a serious bearish move. On the other hand, both timing and the technical picture suggest that crude oil is finishing the 1st phase of its base cycle. This implies a high probability of an upward trend next week.

💰 The short position from the August 1 extreme forecast was closed by a trailing stop. The working amplitude of this move on the CL futures was about $5K per contract.

⚠️ The next extreme forecast for crude oil is September 1. There are also pivot forecasts on August 25 and August 27.


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