👀 WEEKLY SUMMARY 21.7–25.7 / FORECAST

📉 S&P 500 – Week 16 of the base cycle (average 20 weeks). The cycle is very mature. The probability of a top on the upcoming extreme forecasts is high. Retrograde Mercury (dates published at the beginning of the year) has broken through local resistance at the levels of the July 7 and July 14 extreme forecasts (see chart). Retro Mercury tends to break resistance – I warned about this last week). Despite my bearish bias, a long position was opened on the breakout.

🐻 Classic DJIA still hasn’t managed to decisively break the winter highs near the extreme forecast levels of December 9 and January 29 (see weekly chart). The bearish intermarket divergence remains intact. The new highs in S&P and NASDAQ are still unconfirmed by DJIA.

☝️ In the context of the 7-year crisis cycle, a solid breakout by DJIA above the winter highs would shift the forecast for a major bearish reversal to February 2026. Until that happens, I view any new market highs with suspicion – especially in the window of strong extreme forecasts from August 1 to August 11.

⚠️ The next extreme forecast for the U.S. stock market falls on August 1–4. A major one is coming on August 11.



🏆 GOLD – Week 11 of the new base cycle (15–20+ weeks). Classic retro Mercury: a clean technical breakout from the daily MA20 brought joy to the gold bugs, only to be followed by a surprise collapse. I warned about these retro tricks in the previous post. The July 18 extreme forecast and July 23 pivot forecast both played out with precision. Technically, gold is now showing signs of a "dead cat bounce."

👉 The bearish intermarket divergence between gold and silver remains significant. More weak hands are getting lured into the inflated silver market via social media and mass media hype.

💰 The long position from the July 18 extreme forecast was closed by a trailing stop. The working amplitude of that move in GC futures was around $4K per contract. A short position was opened on the July 23 pivot forecast.

☝️ My strategic view is detailed in the post on long gold cycles. 2025 is year 10 of the current 15-year gold cycle. The tops of both previous 15-year bull cycles were reached in year 10. There is a real chance that the April–June 2025 triple top, which aligned with the extreme forecasts of April 22 and June 16, could mark the top of this 15-year cycle.

⚠️ The next extreme forecasts for gold fall on August 1–4 and August 11.



🛢 CRUDE OIL – Week 12 of the new base cycle (28 weeks). Crude spent the entire week in a state of total apathy. With major astrological aspects approaching, crude's volatility could increase sharply at the beginning of August.

👉 Even in this sluggish setup, the July 18 and 23 pivot forecasts still showed up on the chart. That said, these setups were insufficient for effective trading: the short from July 18 closed flat, and the long from July 23 was stopped out with a small loss.

⚠️ The next pivot forecast for crude oil is August 1–4. The next extreme forecast for crude is August 11.


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