👀 WEEKLY SUMMARY 14.7–18.7 / FORECAST

📉 S&P500 – Week 15 of the base cycle (average 20 weeks). The base cycle is getting mature – the odds of a top are increasing. The extreme forecasts for July 7 and July 14 are still barely containing the bulls. The short position opened last week on the July 7 extreme was closed with a minor loss. A cluster of strong aspects in a short timeframe always triggers price breakdance.

🐻 Classic DJIA continues trying to form a triple top around the July 7 extreme forecast and the levels of the December 9 and January 29 extremes (see weekly chart). The bearish intermarket divergence remains in place. The new highs in S&P and NASDAQ are still unconfirmed by DJIA.

☝️ In the context of the 7-year crisis cycle, a confirmed breakout of the double top at the December 9 and January 29 levels across all indexes would shift the forecast for the next major bearish reversal to February 2026. Until that happens, I treat new market highs with suspicion – especially during the July 7 to August 11 window.

⚠️ By the way, Friday marked the beginning of the trickster’s season – retrograde Mercury, the dates of which I always publish separately at the beginning of the year. Expect surprises in the markets. I wouldn’t even rule out a breakout of resistance in the DJIA – or a sudden reversal – especially considering the cycle’s maturity at new highs. The next extreme forecast for the U.S. stock market falls within this window: July 18–21. There's also a pivot forecast on July 23.


🏆 GOLD – Week 10 of the new base cycle (15–20+ weeks). The picture remains technically conflicted, reflecting uncertainty among gold market participants. A cluster of strong aspects in a short timeframe always brings volatility. There’s also a pronounced bearish intermarket divergence between gold and silver.

💰 The long position from the July 8 pivot forecast was closed via trailing stop. The working amplitude of this move in GC futures was around $2K per contract. The short position opened on the July 14 extreme forecast was closed with a minor loss.

☝️ My long-term view on gold was outlined in the post on long gold cycles. 2025 is the 10th year of the current 15-year gold cycle. The tops of both previous 15-year bull cycles were reached in year 10. There is a strong possibility that the April–June 2025 triple top, formed at the April 22 and June 16 extreme forecasts, could mark the peak of this 15-year cycle.

⚠️ Retrograde Mercury began on Friday. Expect surprises. Extremes in major markets often align with the beginning, midpoint, or end of retrograde periods. Accordingly, the next extreme forecast for gold falls within July 18–21. There's also a pivot forecast for July 23.

🛢 CRUDE OIL – Week 11 of the new base cycle (28 weeks), Phase 2. The July 7 extreme and July 14 pivot forecasts continue to hold back crude bulls’ breakout attempts. Unfortunately, the short position opened on the July 14 pivot forecast was stopped out with a minor loss.

☝️ Crude continues to trade in a tight sideways channel. Take a look at the broader picture – the peak was in March 2022. This sideways range has now lasted over 3 years. I continue to see strong structural similarity to 2010–2014 (see the chart).

⚠️ Friday marked the beginning of Mercury retrograde season, which could trigger significant (and potentially unexpected) price action in crude. The next pivot forecast for crude is July 18–21. The next extreme forecast is August 11.



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