📈 LONG-TERM CYCLES OF THE U.S. STOCK MARKET (Update)

☝️ Historical retrospectives show that the longest cycle of the U.S. stock market spans approximately 72 years. In recent history, there have been only three such supercycles.

1️⃣ The first supercycle ended with the Panic of 1857, which gradually transitioned into the Long Depression of 1873–1879.
2️⃣ The second supercycle ended with the Great Depression of 1929–1932.
3️⃣ The third supercycle ended with the Great Recession – the financial crisis of 2007–2008.

👉 Technically, the third supercycle ended in March 2009 on a hard Saturn–Uranus aspect, whose oppositions and conjunctions have a 100% correlation with long-term U.S. market cycles. We are currently at the beginning of the fourth supercycle.

👉 Each supercycle consists of two long-term cycles of approximately 36 years. These 36-year cycles are further divided into two phases of 18 years. Historically, most 18-year cycles fall in a range from 15 to 21 years. Given that 2024 is the 15th year of the current 18-year cycle, this cycle is likely to end between 2024 and 2030 with a major correction.

What assumptions can we make today about the current 18-year cycle, based on cycle theory?
1️⃣ This is the first 18-year phase of the new supercycle.
2️⃣ The correction at the end of the cycle will not drop below the March 2009 low, which marked the bottom of the 72-year supercycle.
3️⃣ The magnitude of the correction will not exceed the percentage decline seen from the 2007 top to the March 2009 bottom.

👉 The decline from the 2007 peak to the March 2009 bottom was about 54%. Therefore, if we assume that the extremes on March 21 and April 1 (forecasted at the beginning of the year: represent the top of the 18-year cycle, the maximum downside target for the correction could be 3000 for the S&P 500 and 23000 for the DJ30 (with a possible 26000 level due to strong technical support). However, it is still not guaranteed that the March–April 2024 high will hold.

⚠️ Overall, we are in a very mature 18-year cycle. The cycle top may occur at any time. It’s possible that the top has already formed with the double top on March 21 and April 1. Following the top, a sharp correction of around 40–54% is likely. From both cycle theory and financial astrology, the 2024–2028 window appears ideal for the end of the current 18-year cycle — and the best time to build a long-term investment portfolio for the next 8–10 years.

UPDATE: The March–April 2024 top didn’t hold. Bullish market energy pushed the continuation of the 4-year cycle into April 2025. A double top formed on my extremum forecasts for December 9, 2024 and January 29, 2025. A new 4-year cycle started from my April 7 extremum forecast. As of late June 2025, the market is attempting to reach the double top. That’s quite normal for the start of a 4-year cycle — the beginning of any cycle is typically bullish.

In case of a confirmed breakout above the double top, the preliminary forecast for the market peak shifts to February 2026, with the end of the 4-year cycle, the 7-year cycle, and the 18-year cycle expected in autumn 2028.

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