🏆 LONG-TERM GOLD CYCLES
👉 Before 1970, the gold market was tightly controlled by the international monetary system. The foundation was the gold standard — first the classical one (19th to early 20th century), and later the Bretton Woods system (since 1944).
🔺 Gold had a fixed price: $35 per ounce.
🔺 The U.S. dollar was freely convertible into gold for foreign governments and central banks.
🔺 National currencies were pegged to the dollar, and the dollar — to gold.
☝️ Under such conditions, gold wasn’t considered a tradable market asset — its price didn’t rise, and there was no real trading. The main holders of gold were governments and central banks, and in many countries (including the U.S.), private individuals were banned from owning gold bullion.
👉 But the system didn’t hold. The U.S. was printing more money than it could back with gold. In 1971, Richard Nixon announced a “temporary” suspension of dollar convertibility into gold — this gave birth to the floating exchange rate system, and gold became a free market asset.
☝️ In 1968, the U.S. and several major countries introduced a two-tier gold pricing system to separate the monetary and private markets. This move led to a breakout in the spot price of gold. Since then, gold never returned to its former levels. That’s why we can count the long-term gold cycle roughly from 1970.
👉 According to the charts, the long-term gold cycle spans about 15 years, with an intermediate 7-year cycle nested within.
1️⃣ 1970 – February 1985 / top in January 1980 / mid-cycle in August 1976
2️⃣ 1985 – April 2001 (bear market) / top in December 1987 (bearish) / mid-cycle in March 1993
3️⃣ 2001 – December 2015 / top in September 2011 / mid-cycle in October 2008
4️⃣ 2015 – ? 2029–2030 / top? April 2025 / mid-cycle in November 2022
☝️ That makes 2025 the 10th year of the current 15-year gold cycle, and the 3rd year of the intermediate 7-year cycle. The tops of both previous 15-year bull cycles occurred in year 10.
⚠️ Thus, it’s reasonable to assume that the triple top in April–June 2025 — formed at the extreme forecasts of April 22 and June 16, issued at the beginning of the year — may turn out to be the top of the current 15-year cycle.
⚠️ Much now depends on gold’s behavior at the upcoming extreme forecasts on July 14, July 21, August 4, and August 11.
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