👀 WEEKLY SUMMARY 31.3–4.4 / FORECAST

📉 S&P500 – 12th week of the base cycle (average 20 weeks), which started on the pivot forecast of January 13, currently in the 2nd phase. This bear is completing the prolonged 50-week cycle and the 4-year cycle. The delay in the cycles wasn’t an exception, as the maximum durations remained within statistical norms. Target levels are given in the post “Bear 2025 in Numbers”. Preliminary timing forecasts for the end of this base cycle were shared in the post from March 23.

☝️ I believe the presidential cycle played a role in the delay of the 4-year cycle, which was supposed to bottom in October 2024 or January 2025 based on timing. You can read more about this in my 2024 post “Market Crashes and Presidents”. Markets simply weren’t ready to fall under a Democratic president.

⚠️ Keep in mind that the end of the current base cycle will mark the beginning of a new 4-year cycle. The start of any cycle, even a bearish one, is always bullish, and the start of a new 4-year cycle could be very energetic. But for how long? Take a look at the crisis map 2024–2030. It shows both the January dip and the current bear. Interesting developments are likely in spring 2026 during the final stage of the 7-year crisis cycle.

⚠️ We are holding the short position opened on the extreme forecast of March 24 — the midpoint of Mercury retrograde. You can read about the benefits of Mercury retrograde at the link or through the index in the Telegram channel. The next extreme forecast is on April 7. The next pivot forecast is on April 14 — the end of the Venus retrograde period, which has been very active this year.

🏆 GOLD – 6th week of the base cycle (15–20+ weeks), nearing the end of phase 1. Market turbulence usually weighs on gold, so the sharp correction on Thursday–Friday, which wasn’t supported by any extreme or pivot forecast, didn’t come as a surprise. That’s what stop-losses are for.

⚠️ The working range of the long position from the March 3 extreme forecast to the March 19 pivot forecast in GC futures exceeded $12K per contract. The working range from the March 24 extreme forecast to the stop was $6K per contract. Congrats to those who entered. Special thanks to Mercury retrograde, as the March 24 extreme forecast was its midpoint. The next extreme forecast is on April 7. The next pivot forecast is on April 14.

🛢 CRUDE – 18th week of the base cycle (28 weeks). We are in the 2nd phase, clearly bearish. On March 23 I wrote:
"The current base cycle cannot yet be called bearish as it hasn’t broken the starting point. The next key extreme forecasts for crude are March 27 and 31."
👉 Now this base cycle can be considered bearish. Even though the short position from March 27 was stopped out with a planned loss, the extreme forecast of March 31 provided an opportunity to open a new short position. This is a rare case of two closely spaced extreme forecasts triggering back-to-back. These forecasts were issued specifically for crude at the beginning of the year as a window from March 28–31.

⚠️ It looks like my bearish forecast is being confirmed, as outlined in the summer 2024 crude post. The Jupiter–Uranus conjunction is working precisely. All of this resembles the 2010–2014 setup. The previous 4-year crude cycle began in spring 2020 and went sideways from fall 2022. It seems a new 4-year cycle has already started, and its beginning is very weak — much like fall 2012. There’s a high probability this will be a bearish 4-year cycle ending closer to 2028. The next universal extreme forecast is on April 7. The next crude-specific extreme forecast is on May 5.

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