🛢 LONG CRUDE OIL CYCLE

👉 I've been writing a lot about crude oil lately, because now is a very interesting period of formation of the base of a new long oil cycle, which does not happen often. It's interesting to watch events unfold in real time.

👉 The long oil cycle lasts an average of 4 years. The current long cycle began in April 2020 and is now in a very mature stage. The top of the cycle occurred on March 7, 2022 - a historical maximum for oil. This cycle is clearly bullish, as a breakdown of the 2020 level downward is unlikely. 

☝️ Since 1969 there have been 14 such cycles. Of these, there are 50/50 bullish and bearish cycles, with 4 bearish cycles producing strong growth in the first year. Based on the dynamics of the chart, we can assume that the next cycle will also be bullish. In any case, the first year after reaching the base of the cycle can be quite intense growth, which was observed in 11 of 14 cases over 60 years. 

👉 Until the bottom point has been reached, it is too early to predict anything. I don’t think that in the current economic and political situation a repetition of the extreme bearish cycle of 2012-1016 is possible (although theoretically anything is possible). Most likely a bull, at least in the first year.

👉 The bottom point of the current long cycle will most likely coincide with the bottom point of the base cycle (28 weeks), which is due in June-July. The probability of a shift to the next base cycle (another 6-7 months) is small - it will be too far from the conjunction of Jupiter and Uranus in April 2024.

👉 It is still difficult to imagine the scale of the possible correction, and most importantly, its reasons. The correction may be minimal, as it was in January 1979, June 1990, November 2005 and October 2012 (then the super bear of 2012-2016 really happened). The correction can be dramatic, as it was in 1982, 1993, 1998, 2001 and 2020. 

⚠️ We will look at timing (nearest extremes) and technical indicators. So far it is May 24 (week 24, rather weak extreme), June 17-20 (week 26, strong signal) and July 1 (week 28, strong signal).

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