📈 50-WEEK CYCLE, US STOCKS

☝️ In February, March and May I mentioned a 50-week cycle that started in October 2023. The normal range for this cycle is 40-60 weeks (75%). The length of the previous cycle after the low in October 2022 was 54 weeks. The 50-week mark of the current cycle is in October 2024.

👉 Almost always, the 50-week cycle rises for at least 7 weeks after the start. In 90% of cases, the rise lasted at least 10 weeks.

☝️ When aligned with a 4-year cycle, the last leg of a 50-week DJIA cycle often tests or breaks the low of the previous 50-week cycle (75%). Since we are at the end of a 4-year cycle, there is a chance that in the fall of 2024, the DJIA could touch or break the 32400 level.

👉 Most 4-year cycles consist of four or five 50-week cycles. The current cycle is the fourth. The cycle is mature. Therefore, the bottom of the current 50-week cycle may coincide with the bottom of the current 4-year cycle.

⚠️ As I wrote in my May post on the US equity market medium-term cycle, the common low of the current 4-year cycle, 50-week cycle and 20-week base cycle may be reached in October-November 2024. The consequence is, as a rule, a strong bullish trend.