📉 MEDIUM-TERM US STOCK MARKET CYCLE

👉 The main medium-term cycle of the US stock market is a 4-year cycle. The historical range of this cycle is from 31 to 68 months. The norm can be considered a range from 36 to 56 months, this is approximately 80% of all 4-year cycles.

👉 The lowest point of the last confirmed 4-year cycle occurred in March 2020. The founding of the 6- and 9-year cycles occurred during the same period. These cycles are phases of an 18-year long-term cycle. These will be discussed later in a separate post. There are four to five 4-year cycles in an 18-year cycle. The current cycle is the fourth in a long-term 18-year cycle.

👉 Taking into account the time structure of the previous cycle, the low point of the current 4-year cycle can be reached in 2024, no later than the beginning of 2025. The minimum market level to date occurred in October 2022, which became the basis of the 1st phase of the cycle. This year, new highs were reached for the 2nd phase in particular and the 4-year cycle in general.

☝️ The current 4-year cycle is definitely mature and may soon reach its apogee. In addition, market growth over the past four years has significantly exceeded average values and reached a certain statistical ceiling.

🤞 When to expect the bottom point of the current 4-year cycle? If we are close to the top, then taking into account the current 20-week base cycle, which has just begun, we can tentatively talk about October-November 2024. The correction from the top of the 4-year cycle averages from 20 to 50%. When the top of the cycle is reached, it will be possible to guess the approximate level of correction.

☝️ And one more thing. October 2023 marked the beginning of the 50-week cycle. There will also be a separate publication about this series. Interestingly, the estimated low point of the 50-week cycle will also occur in October-November 2024. The overlap of cycles enhances the cycle completion effect and provides serious impetus for market growth.

UPDATE: New 4-year stock market cycle.

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