👀 WEEKLY SUMMARY 6.1–10.1 / FORECAST

📉 S&P500 – 23rd week of the base cycle (on average 20 weeks). The pivot forecast on January 6 worked perfectly for a reversal. Not surprising, as there has not yet been a clear correction of the current base cycle or the two longer mature cycles: the 50-week cycle and the 4-year cycle.

☝️ On Monday, January 6, a large tail from MA20 indicated market weakness. Good opportunities for opening short positions intraday were present at the start of the regular trading session. The next day, January 7, a daily technical signal was formed. By Friday’s close, we saw a breakout of the double bottom.

⚠️ There is a high probability that we are in the stage of completing the base cycle, the 50-week cycle, and the 4-year cycle. Those who managed to enter at the pivot forecast on January 6 should manage their position with a trailing stop. Pivot forecasts for next week are January 14 and January 16. The next extremum forecast is January 29.

🏆 GOLD – 9th week of the base cycle (15–20+ weeks). The pivot forecast on January 6, which I provided for S&P and crude, worked for a correction reversal and triggered a significant trend in gold. A clear technical signal on the daily chart appeared on January 7. The working amplitude of the GC futures movement by Friday’s close exceeded $5K per contract. Congratulations to those who entered.

⚠️ The market currently looks overbought. Friday’s tail is most likely a news effect. The next extremum forecast for gold from the 2025 annual forecast is expected on Monday, January 13. This formation is usually associated with significant moves in precious metals.

🛢 CRUDE – 6th week of the base cycle (28 weeks). Last week, I wrote:
"The bullish momentum is quite strong, and there is a likelihood of a powerful uptrend breaking all resistance levels."
The pivot forecast on January 6 persistently held back the oil surge at the lower boundary of the large triangle (see chart) throughout the week. The extremum strength was sufficient to create a consolidation zone. However, by Friday, all resistances were broken.

👉 There is now no doubt that the extremum forecast on December 9 triggered the start of a new cycle, and the extremum forecast on December 20 provided an additional impulse. Thus, we are in the 6th week of the base cycle. I hope many positional traders held their position from December 20 since Friday’s low was not broken.

☝️ For crude, there are pivot forecasts on January 13 and January 17, associated with some positivity in crude supply on the market. They may work for a correction in combination with the resistance level around $80 on CL futures. The levels of the large triangle continue to act as support. There are no extremum forecasts for crude in January.

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