👀 WEEKLY SUMMARY 30.12-03.01 / FORECAST

📉 S&P500 – 22nd week of the base cycle (average 20 weeks) or the 1st week of the new cycle. On January 2, the market formed a double bottom at the support line created by the extreme forecasts from October 14 and November 18. The pivot forecast for January 6 may have already played out to the upside, as there is upward momentum and a technical signal based on the January 2 close. This could mark the start of a new cycle. However, I have yet to see a proper closure of the 4-year cycle. Given the uncertainties around cycles, we are counting both cycles for now.

⚠️ The working amplitude of the E-mini futures movement based on the December 26 pivot forecast ranged from $5K to $8K, depending on the exit strategy (trailing stop or target at the support line). Congratulations to those who traded this move!

🏆 GOLD – 8th week of the base cycle (15-20+ weeks). Another trendless week, although sufficiently volatile for effective intraday trades. The base cycle remains sluggish for now.

⚠️ A reminder: an extreme forecast for January 13 is expected to trigger significant movements in precious metals.

🛢 CRUDE – 8th week of the base cycle (28 weeks). The momentum from the December 20 extreme forecast was enough to pull the market out of uncertainty and ignite a significant upward trend. However, we are once again encountering a large triangle formation, which has been discussed nearly every week since August. As of Friday's close, the working amplitude of the CL crude futures movement exceeded $4K. Congratulations to those who entered the market!

☝️ A pivot forecast for crude is set for January 6, associated with increased crude supply in the market. It’s not particularly strong but could lead to a correction, considering the strong trend nearing exhaustion and contact with the resistance line of the large triangle.

⚠️ There’s a possibility that the December 20 extreme forecast triggered the start of a new cycle, beginning with a breakout. In that case, this would be the third week of the new cycle, and the start of any cycle is typically bullish. Be cautious with shorts, as the bullish momentum is quite strong, and there is a possibility of a powerful uptrend breaking all resistance levels. For better technical clarity, I’m providing two crude oil charts: daily and weekly.

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