👀 WEEKLY SUMMARY 13.1–17.1 / FORECAST

📉 S&P500 – most likely the 1st week of a new base cycle (on average 20 weeks). The length of the previous cycle was 23 weeks. The pivot forecast on January 13–14 worked for a reversal. The market's oversold condition was evident on the weekly chart as early as January 10. A clear technical signal appeared on the daily chart on January 14. Many probably noticed the extreme divergence with "Mr. Copper." The working amplitude of the E-mini futures movement by Friday’s close was almost $7K per contract. Congratulations to those who entered. If you haven't closed your position, hold it with a trailing stop and aim for January 29.

⚠️ A reasonable question: What about the two long mature cycles—the 50-week cycle and the 4-year cycle—that could cause a significant correction? The current 4-year cycle has already lasted 58 months, exceeding the norm of 36–56 months (cycle characteristics available here). Based on timing, the bottom of this long cycle is bound to appear in the new base cycle.

👉 Tentatively, I suggest that the new base cycle may turn bearish (a short rise followed by a steep drop below the opening) with the formation of a double top or divergence around our extremum forecast on January 29. If you recall, the previous base cycle attempted to form a double top in the first week of September last year, but the negative energy was insufficient at that time.

🏆 GOLD – 10th week of the base cycle (15–20+ weeks), active 2nd phase of the cycle. The extremum forecast on January 13 worked for a correction reversal and triggered a solid trend. This was expected, as this formation is usually associated with significant moves in precious metals. I mentioned this last week. The working amplitude of the GC futures movement by Friday’s close was about $5K per contract. Congratulations to those who entered.

👉 The next pivot forecast is January 20. Resistance from the double top on futures at the 2760 level is significant. On Thursday-Friday, gold tested this level. In the active 2nd phase of the cycle, there are high chances of breaking this level. I believe the extremum forecast on January 13 still has potential. The next extremum forecast is January 29.

🛢 CRUDE – 7th week of the base cycle (28 weeks). The pivot forecast on January 13 slowed the market, while the pivot forecast on January 17 worked for a reversal at the resistance level around $80 on CL futures, as I predicted last week. A clear technical signal appeared at the close on January 16. The full working amplitude of CL futures movement from the extremum forecast on December 20 amounted to almost $10K per contract. Congratulations to those who entered, held, and closed the position.

👉 It’s time to test the boundaries of the large triangle, which have now become support levels from the other side. For the next week, I have no pivot forecasts or extremum forecasts for crude. As a precaution, I opened a short based on the pivot forecast on January 17. We’ll rely on significant technical signals. The first extremum forecast of the new year is expected on February 3.

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