REVERSALS AND TRENDS

📉 S&P 500 – 9th week of the base cycle (avg. 20 weeks), which started on the 4 Aug. extremum forecast. The market reversed right on the 22 Sep. extremum forecast in the context of the Saros cycle (see last week’s post + separate note). The impulse carried down to the daily MA20. Friday closed on a bullish note, but geocosmic pressure remains. 👉 After a sequence of powerful geocosmic signals, markets now enter a 2-week pause. Solar-lunar activity will stay in play, but the focus shifts to the aftermath of recent events and announcements. The only exception could be a U.S. government shutdown starting Oct 1, allowing the administration to send civil servants into unpaid leave or even lay them off. 💰 A short position was opened on the 22 Sep. extremum forecast by a technical signal, still alive after Friday without being taken out by the trailing stop. Aggressive traders closing at the daily MA20 target captured about $4K per ES futures contract. ⚠️ Next extremum forecast for U...

🔺 We are entering a rare geocosmic period. The key event — the solar eclipse on September 22, part of the 18-year Saros cycle. Similar eclipses coincided with major crises: 2007, 1989, and 1971, when Nixon unpegged the dollar from gold. 🔺 The setup is reinforced by other factors. Venus squaring Uranus, the Sun opposing Saturn and Neptune, Mars entering Scorpio and then squaring Pluto. All of these are signatures of potential reversals and crisis spikes. A similar configuration occurred in October 2023 — that was the start of the Gaza conflict, and gold turned into a sharp rally. 🔺 Today gold is once again at the center of investor attention, and this Saros cycle may confirm its special status. The geopolitical backdrop remains tense, and the mix of eclipse, equinox, and Mars–Pluto aspect promises little calm. 🔺 For the markets this means elevated risks. Sharp reversals are possible both up and down, especially in gold, equities, and crypto. In such periods it’s better not to be ...

📉 S&P 500 – 8th week of the base cycle (average 20 weeks), which started at the 4 August extremum-forecast. On Friday, all three indices reached new all-time highs. 👉 22 September – solar eclipse near the autumn equinox. This one belongs to the Saros cycle tied to the crises of 1971, 1989, and 2007. This time, however, it comes with tense aspects from Venus, Mars, Saturn, and Pluto — altogether, a signal of instability. For the markets this means one thing: gold, equities, and crypto may turn sharply. Volatility will become both a threat and an opportunity — in such periods it is critical to keep risk under control. 💰 The long position opened on the pivot-forecast of 1 September closed via trailing stop. The working amplitude of this move on the ES futures was about $7K per contract. ⚠️ The next extremum-forecast for US equity indices falls on Monday, 22 September . 🏆 GOLD – 5th week of the base cycle (15–20+ weeks), which started at the 25 August extremum-forecast. The s...

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📈 S&P 500 – at this point it’s fair to conclude that we are most likely in the 7th week of a new base cycle (avg. 20 weeks), which began on the Aug 4 extreme forecast. I already made this assumption three weeks ago in my Aug 23 post: "Where are we now: the 20th week of the current base cycle (avg. 20 weeks) or the 4th week of a new base cycle? For a mature base cycle, this bull is too lively. The fact is that sometimes, in strong bull markets, a new base cycle can start on a breakout with almost no correction. It’s possible that the base cycle low was reached on the Aug 1–4 extreme forecast. The stock market may well be in the 4th week of a new base cycle." ☝️ The Aug 4 extreme forecast was announced earlier this year. It coincided with the midpoint of Mercury retrograde, once again proving its forecasting effectiveness. 👉 Two weeks ago I wrote: “The technical picture remains resilient, confirming the long-term bull trend.” The Sept 8 extreme forecast didn’t come wi...

🔺 Today’s market lives in two dimensions at once. In some assets we see clear signs of deflation — demand is shrinking, prices rolling back. In others — the opposite: inflation keeps accelerating, with the cost of coveted assets and goods rising, fueled by excess liquidity. 🔺 This is no paradox. It all depends on where you look. Where there’s no flow of speculative capital, prices tend to reflect real demand and the state of the economy. But wherever investment flows and mass expectations concentrate, a bubble takes shape. 🔺 In recent years it has become obvious that gold, stocks, and crypto now move in sync as a single class of risk assets. Once they could live their own lives, but after trillions in liquidity were pumped into the system, the difference has vanished. These assets are no longer a diversification for each other. Either they all rise, or they all fall. 🔺 This creates the illusion of prosperity. People eagerly take loans, live on credit, buy what used to be conside...

📉 S&P 500 – 22nd week of the base cycle (avg. 20 weeks). The current base cycle is at the edge of maturity, where reversals often form. By Friday’s close, S&P once again showed signs of a reversal from a new ATH. Against the backdrop of fresh highs in S&P and DJIA, a bearish divergence with NASDAQ persists (see chart). 💰 The short position opened on Friday’s technical signal from the 27 Aug pivot-forecast impulse was closed by trailing stop at breakeven. On the 1 Sept pivot-forecast (previously noted for gold and crude oil), a long position was opened. ⚠️ The next extreme-forecast for US equity indices falls on Monday, 8 Sept — a strong forecasting aspect with high potential for surprises. The following extreme-forecast for US stocks is on 22 Sept. 🏆 GOLD – 3rd week of the new base cycle (15–20+ weeks). Finally, the long-awaited bullish breakout. The bulky technical formation turned out to be a continuation triangle. 👌 The 25 Aug extreme-forecast still worked and ...

🔺 Let’s start with the S&P 500 chart. Everyone’s seen it: since the crisis it’s been ripping higher from 1000 toward 6000, with only a few dips like 2022, spring 2025 or Covid. The logic seems simple: buy the pullbacks, hold, and you’re in profit. Most believe that this rise reflects the real value of companies. It doesn’t. The key lies in passive investing. Money floods into funds where nobody looks at earnings reports or valuation multiples. The algorithm is simple: buy the index and forget. This flipped the mechanics — price became value. If the chart goes up, it must be “right.” That substitution turns the market into a bubble: it gets more expensive simply because it already is. Why is this dangerous? Because the S&P’s market cap is already well above $50 trillion. And if the growth is driven by “blind” buyers, the selloff will be driven by equally “blind” sellers. There aren’t enough active investors to catch the falling knife. A doom loop kicks in: mass outflows trigg...