💥 THE $50 TRILLION BUBBLE
🔺 Let’s start with the S&P 500 chart. Everyone’s seen it: since the crisis it’s been ripping higher from 1000 toward 6000, with only a few dips like 2022, spring 2025 or Covid. The logic seems simple: buy the pullbacks, hold, and you’re in profit. Most believe that this rise reflects the real value of companies. It doesn’t.
The key lies in passive investing. Money floods into funds where nobody looks at earnings reports or valuation multiples. The algorithm is simple: buy the index and forget. This flipped the mechanics — price became value. If the chart goes up, it must be “right.” That substitution turns the market into a bubble: it gets more expensive simply because it already is.
Why is this dangerous? Because the S&P’s market cap is already well above $50 trillion. And if the growth is driven by “blind” buyers, the selloff will be driven by equally “blind” sellers. There aren’t enough active investors to catch the falling knife. A doom loop kicks in: mass outflows trigger an avalanche down.
🔺 The main trigger — employment. When unemployment approaches 5–6%, the net outflows from funds begin. And if a recession hits, or AI accelerates automation, the rate could surge to 8–10%. That’s no correction — that’s an air pocket, a collapse in double digits.
🔺 How low can we fall? No one knows for sure, but underestimating the risk is the real mistake. There are two traps: believing it’s all over and selling everything, or closing your eyes and trusting in eternal growth. Experienced players hold long positions, but hedge them against crashes.
History suggests that every long bull cycle started with a P/E below 20. Today it’s the opposite. If the structure breaks, the index could slide back to 4000 — or even lower by 2029 — right at the end of the 7-year crisis cycle. The optimists among insiders say: minus 50% would actually be the best-case scenario.
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