REVERSALS AND TRENDS

🔸 March 17, 2025 – April 7, 2025 , midpoint: March 24, 2025 🔸 July 18, 2025 – August 11, 2025 , midpoint: August 1, 2025 🔸 November 10, 2025 – December 1, 2025 , midpoint: November 20, 2025 👉 These are the Mercury retrograde periods in 2025. If you follow and use this blog in your trading or investment work, you already know how crucial this information is. As an example, I refer to the Mercury retrograde periods in 2024 for the S&P futures. 👉 Additional information: Retrograde Mercury 2024 , A Few Words About Retro-Mercury , and The 7-Year Crisis Cycle . Content Hub - Articles Index - Library / Archive #mercury

📉 S&P500 – 2nd week of the new base cycle (on average 20 weeks). The S&P index formed a new ATH (all-time high), slightly surpassing the extremum forecast level of December 9. However, the S&P futures did not reach this level, and neither did DJIA or NASDAQ. This indicates intermarket divergence. Signs of a double top with divergence, as mentioned in the previous post , are evident. All three indices closed Friday with a downward daily signal. 👉 The momentum from the January 13 pivot forecast lasted for the second week of the trend. I closed my position on Friday as the indices started signaling a reversal from Thursday onward. The working amplitude of the E-mini futures movement by Friday’s close was approximately $13K per contract. Congratulations to those who entered, held, and exited their positions. ⚠️ The next extremum forecast is January 29. It’s possible it has already worked for a reversal. However, this extremum is tied to Uranus, which can provoke not only r...

📉 S&P500 – most likely the 1st week of a new base cycle (on average 20 weeks). The length of the previous cycle was 23 weeks. The pivot forecast on January 13–14 worked for a reversal. The market's oversold condition was evident on the weekly chart as early as January 10. A clear technical signal appeared on the daily chart on January 14. Many probably noticed the extreme divergence with "Mr. Copper." The working amplitude of the E-mini futures movement by Friday’s close was almost $7K per contract. Congratulations to those who entered. If you haven't closed your position, hold it with a trailing stop and aim for January 29. ⚠️ A reasonable question: What about the two long mature cycles— the 50-week cycle  and the 4-year cycle—that could cause a significant correction? The current 4-year cycle has already lasted 58 months, exceeding the norm of 36–56 months (cycle characteristics available here ). Based on timing, the bottom of this long cycle is bound to appe...

📉 S&P500 – 23rd week of the base cycle (on average 20 weeks). The pivot forecast on January 6 worked perfectly for a reversal. Not surprising, as there has not yet been a clear correction of the current base cycle or the two longer mature cycles: the 50-week cycle  and the 4-year cycle . ☝️ On Monday, January 6, a large tail from MA20 indicated market weakness. Good opportunities for opening short positions intraday were present at the start of the regular trading session. The next day, January 7, a daily technical signal was formed. By Friday’s close, we saw a breakout of the double bottom. ⚠️ There is a high probability that we are in the stage of completing the base cycle, the 50-week cycle, and the 4-year cycle. Those who managed to enter at the pivot forecast on January 6 should manage their position with a trailing stop. Pivot forecasts for next week are January 14 and January 16. The next extremum forecast is January 29. 🏆 GOLD – 9th week of the base cycle (15–20+...

👉 Four crude oil charts present the extreme forecasts for 2024 (including retro-Mercury and S&P), made by me since April 2024 , as verified outcomes. ⚠️ **Extreme forecasts for crude in 2025**: February 3, March 3, March 19, March 28-31, May 5, June 19-23, July 7, August 11, September 1, September 8, September 23, October 14, October 22, November 11, December 10, December 15, December 22-24. 👉 A brief guide to extreme forecasts and the new pivot forecasts is provided here . UPDATE: Crude Oil forecast results for 1H 2025 . Content Hub - Articles Index - Library / Archive #crudeoil

📉 S&P500 – 22nd week of the base cycle (average 20 weeks) or the 1st week of the new cycle. On January 2, the market formed a double bottom at the support line created by the extreme forecasts from October 14 and November 18. The pivot forecast for January 6 may have already played out to the upside, as there is upward momentum and a technical signal based on the January 2 close. This could mark the start of a new cycle. However, I have yet to see a proper closure of the 4-year cycle. Given the uncertainties around cycles, we are counting both cycles for now. ⚠️ The working amplitude of the E-mini futures movement based on the December 26 pivot forecast ranged from $5K to $8K, depending on the exit strategy (trailing stop or target at the support line). Congratulations to those who traded this move! 🏆 GOLD – 8th week of the base cycle (15-20+ weeks). Another trendless week, although sufficiently volatile for effective intraday trades. The base cycle remains sluggish for now. ...

👉 Four gold charts display all the extreme forecasts for 2024, made by me at the beginning of 2024  or throughout the year, as they unfolded. ⚠️ Extreme forecasts for gold in 2025 generally align with the US stock indices data, with slight differences: January 13, January 29, March 3, April 7, April 21, May 19, June 16, June 23, July 7, July 14, August 11, August 25, September 8, September 22, November 3, November 10, December 1, December 15. 👉 A brief guide to extreme forecasts and the new pivot forecasts is provided here . UPDATE: Gold forecast results for H1 2025 . Content Hub - Articles Index - Library / Archive #gold