👀 WEEKLY SUMMARY 20.1–24.1 / FORECAST

📉 S&P500 – 2nd week of the new base cycle (on average 20 weeks). The S&P index formed a new ATH (all-time high), slightly surpassing the extremum forecast level of December 9. However, the S&P futures did not reach this level, and neither did DJIA or NASDAQ. This indicates intermarket divergence. Signs of a double top with divergence, as mentioned in the previous post, are evident. All three indices closed Friday with a downward daily signal.

👉 The momentum from the January 13 pivot forecast lasted for the second week of the trend. I closed my position on Friday as the indices started signaling a reversal from Thursday onward. The working amplitude of the E-mini futures movement by Friday’s close was approximately $13K per contract. Congratulations to those who entered, held, and exited their positions.

⚠️ The next extremum forecast is January 29. It’s possible it has already worked for a reversal. However, this extremum is tied to Uranus, which can provoke not only reversals but also level breakouts. In case of a breakout below Friday’s low, I will be shorting as a precaution. The market is overshadowed by two unresolved long cycles; see the previous post.

👉 The market is clearly overbought. Be cautious, especially if there’s a short correction followed by reversal signals (daily technical signal) on Wednesday or Thursday. Remember, this is the start of a cycle, which is typically bullish, and the risk of forming a false double top remains.

🏆 GOLD – 11th week of the base cycle (15–20+ weeks), active 2nd phase of the cycle. The momentum from the January 13 extremum forecast sustained the trend into a second week. This formation is usually associated with significant moves in precious metals. Gold broke through and blurred the 2760 resistance on futures that I discussed last week.

👉 The pivot forecast of January 20 worked downward on Monday during an illiquid holiday market, leading to stop-outs for positions active on the holiday. For those who held onto their stops, the working amplitude of the January 13 extremum forecast on GC futures by Friday’s close exceeded $8K per contract.

⚠️ The next extremum forecast is January 29, which might materialize earlier with a tail on Monday. This extremum is tied to Uranus, so there could be nuances with level breakouts.

🛢 CRUDE – 8th week of the base cycle (28 weeks). Crude not only tested the boundaries of the large triangle, as promised last week, but also broke through them. The trend from the January 17 pivot forecast was only halted by the MA20 moving average. By Friday’s close, daily reversal signals were evident. Whether the January 29 extremum forecast will affect crude is unclear. At a minimum, it seems reasonable to close short positions.

⚠️ The first extremum forecast for crude this year is expected on February 3. I maintain a bearish outlook, as justified in my post on crude from summer 2024.

👉 The total working amplitude of the CL crude futures movement from the January 17 pivot forecast exceeded $3K per contract. Congratulations to those who entered—an excellent trade.

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