👀 WEEKLY SUMMARY 5.5–9.5 / FORECAST

📉 S&P500 – 5th week of the new base cycle (average 20 weeks). Long position from the extreme forecast of April 7 or from April 22, both announced earlier this year. The pivot forecast on May 5 halted the market's upward trend. The working amplitude of the ES futures move by Friday's close was around $18K per contract. The market appears weak for the beginning of a cycle.

⚠️ According to the crisis map, serious trouble is expected for the stock market in mid-June. The next extreme forecast falls on Monday, May 19.

🏆 GOLD – After adjustments, I’m proceeding with the assumption that this is the 20th week of the base cycle (15–20+ weeks). The pivot forecast of May 5 worked upward and formed a sort of double top. The cycle is mature. Nearest support on the current GC futures lies at 3000, aligning with the pivot forecasts of February 11 and 24. The next support is around 2850 at the level of the extreme forecast from October 28, 2024.

⚠️ The working amplitude of the GC downward move from the April 22 extreme forecast ranges between $10K and $14K per contract depending on exit method. Congrats to those who caught and closed it successfully. The next extreme forecast for gold is on May 19.

🛢 CRUDE – 23rd week of the base cycle (28 weeks). The extreme forecast of May 2–5 did in fact reverse crude on Monday, forming a sort of double bottom. The working amplitude of the CL downward move from the pivot forecast on April 21 to the extreme forecast of May 5 was about $4K per contract.

⚠️ Is the May 5 extreme forecast the start of a new base cycle? The current one is quite mature (22 weeks), and the double bottom adds some weight to that idea. A long position is open just in case. The standard end of the crude base cycle (28 weeks) aligns with the critical stock market window of June 16–23. During this period, extreme forecasts for crude are also expected on June 19 and 23. The next pivot forecast is on May 19.

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