👀 WEEKLY SUMMARY 28.4–2.5 / FORECAST

📉 S&P500 – 4th week of the new base cycle (average 20 weeks). We’re holding the long position from the extreme forecast on April 7 or from the extreme forecast on April 22. Both of these forecasts were announced earlier this year.

⚠️ According to the crisis map, the stock market is facing serious trouble in the period of June 16–23. The next extreme forecast is expected on May 19. A significant pivot forecast falls on May 5.

🏆 GOLD – most likely the 19th week of the base cycle (15–20+ weeks). I shared my doubts about the start date of the current cycle in the previous post. Most likely, this is the 19th week of the cycle. It seems the cycle has peaked and is heading toward completion. The nearest support in the current GC futures lies around 3000 at the pivot forecast levels of February 11 and 24. The next support is around 2850 at the level of the extreme forecast from October 28, 2024.

⚠️ The working amplitude of the GC futures move from the extreme forecast of April 22 is about $14K per contract by Friday’s close. The next extreme forecast for gold is expected on May 19. A significant pivot forecast falls on May 5.

🛢 CRUDE – 22nd week of the base cycle (28 weeks). The extreme forecast of May 2 halted the downtrend from the pivot forecast of April 21. However, a clear reversal has not yet occurred.

⚠️ Based on cycle timing, the current crude base cycle is expected to end during the critical stock market window of June 16–23. During this period, extreme forecasts for crude are expected on June 19 and 23. The next pivot forecast is on May 19.

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