REVERSALS AND TRENDS

📉 S&P500 – 3rd week of the new base cycle (average 20 weeks), which began at the extreme forecast on April 7 after reaching the projected levels . The extreme forecast of April 22, announced earlier this year  and last week, reversed the correction from the pivot forecast on April 14, continuing the bullish trend of the new cycle. ☝️ The long position from the extreme forecast on April 7 technically held, as the price did not leave the range of the bullish candle from April 9. Those who closed with a small profit or at breakeven inside the candle could reopen based on the technical signal from the extreme forecast on April 22, roughly at the same level. ⚠️ A reminder: the main astrological crisis of 2025 according to the crisis map  awaits us between June 16–23, with serious aftershocks in July and early August. The next extreme forecast is expected on May 19. Significant pivot forecasts are expected around April 28 and May 5. 🏆 GOLD – 9th week of the base cycle (15...

📉 S&P500 – 14th week of the base cycle (average 20 weeks), which began with the pivot forecast on January 13. Alternatively, it could be the second week of a new base cycle. The pivot forecast on April 14 halted the bull that had broken out the week before. The long position from the extreme forecast on April 7 has technically held so far, although some may have exited with a small profit or breakeven. ⚠️ All market moves stayed within the bullish candle from April 9. If this is the start of a new cycle, it’s clearly a technically weak one. Despite hitting the forecast levels  and the reversal, the risk of continuation of the previous base cycle remains. A strong extreme forecast is expected on April 22. A sharp pivot forecast is expected for April 25–28. 🏆 GOLD – 8th week of the base cycle (15–20+ weeks), currently in phase 2. Phase 1 ended with a reversal on the extreme forecast of April 7, which was published at the start of the year . A long position is being held. Th...

📉 S&P500 – 13th week of the base cycle (average 20 weeks), which began with the pivot forecast on January 13. It is also possibly the first week of a new base cycle. The market decline stopped and reversed at the extreme forecast on April 7 (see: U.S. Stock Market Extremes 2025 ). ☝️ The working range of the short position from the extreme forecast on March 24 to the extreme forecast on April 7 in ES futures averaged $30K per contract, with a wide spread due to volatility. Congratulations to those who entered and exited successfully. ⚠️ By Friday’s close, the S&P and DJIA reached the first target levels of 4900 and 38000 from my forecast . DJIA even reached the second target level of 36000. Thus, the correction amounted to the expected 20%. There is a signal to enter on the weekly chart. A daily chart entry signal appeared on April 9. All signs point to the beginning of a new base cycle and therefore a new 4-year cycle. However, the risk of continuation of the old base cycl...

📉 S&P500 – 12th week of the base cycle (average 20 weeks), which started on the pivot forecast of January 13, currently in the 2nd phase. This bear is completing the prolonged 50-week cycle  and the 4-year cycle . The delay in the cycles wasn’t an exception, as the maximum durations remained within statistical norms. Target levels are given in the post “ Bear 2025 in Numbers ”. Preliminary timing forecasts for the end of this base cycle were shared in the post from March 23. ☝️ I believe the presidential cycle played a role in the delay of the 4-year cycle, which was supposed to bottom in October 2024 or January 2025 based on timing. You can read more about this in my 2024 post “ Market Crashes and Presidents ”. Markets simply weren’t ready to fall under a Democratic president. ⚠️ Keep in mind that the end of the current base cycle will mark the beginning of a new 4-year cycle. The start of any cycle, even a bearish one, is always bullish, and the start of a new 4-year cycl...