👀 WEEKLY SUMMARY 14.4–18.4 / FORECAST

📉 S&P500 – 14th week of the base cycle (average 20 weeks), which began with the pivot forecast on January 13. Alternatively, it could be the second week of a new base cycle. The pivot forecast on April 14 halted the bull that had broken out the week before. The long position from the extreme forecast on April 7 has technically held so far, although some may have exited with a small profit or breakeven.

⚠️ All market moves stayed within the bullish candle from April 9. If this is the start of a new cycle, it’s clearly a technically weak one. Despite hitting the forecast levels and the reversal, the risk of continuation of the previous base cycle remains. A strong extreme forecast is expected on April 22. A sharp pivot forecast is expected for April 25–28.

🏆 GOLD – 8th week of the base cycle (15–20+ weeks), currently in phase 2. Phase 1 ended with a reversal on the extreme forecast of April 7, which was published at the start of the year. A long position is being held. The pivot forecast on April 14 delayed movement for a couple of days but couldn’t stop the strong bull. The next extreme forecast for gold is April 21–22.

🛢 CRUDE – 20th week of the base cycle (28 weeks), phase 2. The working range of the short position from the extreme forecast on March 31 to the stop in CL futures was $7K to $12K per contract, depending on exit strategy. Congrats to those who entered and closed successfully.

⚠️ Interestingly, the timing of the end of the current crude base cycle coincides with the stock market’s extreme period of June 16–23. The next pivot forecast for crude is April 21. The next extreme forecast for crude is May 5.

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