👀 WEEKLY SUMMARY 17.2-21.2 / FORECAST

📉 S&P500 – 6th week of the base cycle (average of 20 weeks). By Friday’s close, a triple top formed at the December 9 and January 29 extreme forecast levels, as expected last week.

👉 Strong-handed position traders with stops above the double-top level should have held their short position from January 24. The current futures price has not broken above it. The next pivot forecast is February 24. Based on timing, I cautiously assume that it may work as a correction of Friday’s movement, followed by a downward reversal from the extreme forecast on March 3.

⚠️ There is a high probability that this base cycle will be bearish, with a short rise and a steep drop below the opening. I anticipated this in early January. A bull market does not form a third peak within the first six weeks of the current base cycle. The market remains under the weight of two overextended long cycles, which I have written about extensively in past posts.

⚠️ The most interesting event is expected on the extreme forecast of March 3, coinciding with the start of the retrograde Venus period, which I mentioned in early December. The start of retrograde Venus usually triggers a market crash, while retrograde Mercury will add volatility starting March 17. However, I do not expect a correction of more than 20%, as a major crash is not likely before next year.

🏆 GOLD – 15th week of the base cycle (15-20+ weeks). A very mature cycle with a bearish setup on the daily chart. The new high on the February 11 pivot forecast has held for a week. Based on cycle timing, this pivot forecast may mark the top of the current base cycle. However, strong support remains at the October 28 extreme forecast level (2850-2830 on the current futures contract). Additional support comes from the broken double top at the retrograde Mercury level from November 25 (2780 on the current futures contract).

⚠️ Next pivot forecast: February 24. Next extreme forecast: March 3 – the beginning of the retrograde Venus period, which I mentioned in early December. I cautiously assume that March 3 may mark the start of a new base cycle for gold from one of the support levels mentioned above.

🛢 CRUDE – 12th week of the base cycle (28 weeks), mature 1st phase. Holding the short position from the February 3 extreme forecast. The first phase of the base cycle is not yet complete but is very mature. Crude is pressing against strong support at 69.80 on the April futures contract, which must either be broken or eroded. I believe the maturity of the 1st phase in this context is not coincidental.

⚠️ I maintain my bearish stance, which I explained in my crude oil post from summer 2024. Next pivot forecast for crude: February 24. Next extreme forecast: March 3.

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