👀 WEEKLY SUMMARY 10.2-14.2 / FORECAST

📉 S&P500 – 5th week of the base cycle (average of 20 weeks). Monday opened with a traditional gap down. Unfortunately, the gap was too brief to close the short position with a profit. On Wednesday, the extreme forecast on February 11 pushed the market upward after a brief dip on inflation data. Two long cycles remain open, as I have discussed in previous posts.

⚠️ By Friday’s close, there are signs of a triple top forming at the December 9 and January 29 extreme forecast levels. The next pivot forecast is February 24. The most interesting part is expected at the extreme forecast on March 3, coinciding with the start of the retrograde Venus period, which I mentioned in early December.

🏆 GOLD – 14th week of the base cycle (15-20+ weeks). The pivot forecast on February 11 worked as a reversal on Tuesday and set a new high. Based on cycle timing, this pivot forecast may mark the top of the current base cycle. The cycle is quite mature. However, we should not forget about strong support at the October 28 extreme forecast level (2850 on the current futures contract).

⚠️ Next pivot forecast: February 24. Next extreme forecast: March 3 – the beginning of the retrograde Venus period, which I mentioned in early December.

👉 The working range of movement for the GC futures contract from the February 3 pivot forecast was between $5K and $10K per contract, depending on the exit strategy. Congratulations to those who entered – a great trade.

🛢 CRUDE – 11th week of the base cycle (28 weeks), mature 1st phase. The pivot forecast on February 11 worked as a reversal, similar to the extreme forecast on February 3. This marks the second reversal from the combined resistance of the MA20 and the large triangle boundary, which I discussed in previous posts. Holding the short position from the February 3 extreme forecast. The first phase of the base cycle isn’t over yet, but it is very mature.

⚠️ Note that the pivot forecast on January 17 marked a triple top with the extreme forecasts of July 1 and April 12 (Retrograde Mercury). I maintain my bearish stance, which I explained in my crude oil post from summer 2024. Next pivot forecast for crude: February 24. Next extreme forecast: March 3.

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