👀 WEEKLY SUMMARY 7.7–11.7 / FORECAST

📉 S&P500 – Week 14 of the base cycle (average 20 weeks). The cycle is getting mature – increasing the odds of a top. The new all-time highs in S&P and NASDAQ reached on Thursday, July 3 clearly ran into the extreme forecast for July 7. A short position was opened on a technical signal.

🐻 Classic DJIA also ran into the July 7 extreme forecast and started forming a triple top near the levels of the December 9 and January 29 extremes (see weekly chart). The bearish intermarket divergence remains intact.

💰 The long position from the June 23 extreme forecast was closed on July 7 by a trailing stop. The working amplitude of this move in ES futures ranged from $7K to $9K per contract depending on entry method. Congrats to those who rode the move with discipline – a solid trade.

☝️ My long-term expectations, shared in the post on the new 4-year cycle, remain unchanged. A clear breakout of the double top at the December 9 and January 29 levels across all indexes would shift the forecast for a major bearish reversal to February 2026. For now, the odds of a summer bearish reversal are still alive. Bulls are hitting a wall of strong reversal aspects from July 7 to July 18, which could seriously complicate the rally and add volatility.

⚠️ The next extreme forecast for the U.S. stock market falls on Monday, July 14.

🏆 GOLD – Week 9 of a new base cycle (15–20+ weeks). A highly conflicted technical setup reflects the overall uncertainty in the gold market. The strong reversal window from July 7 to 18, which I previously noted, is limiting both bulls and bears. Multiple strong aspects in a short timeframe typically lead to elevated volatility.

👉 A short position was opened on a technical signal on July 7 but was closed at breakeven via trailing stop. The very next day, after the July 8 pivot forecast, a strong buy signal emerged. A long position was opened in gold.

☝️ Despite holding a long position for now, my long-term view on gold, as outlined in the previous post, has not changed. In short: 2025 is the 10th year of the current 15-year gold cycle. The tops of both previous 15-year bull cycles were reached in year 10.

⚠️ The next extreme forecast for gold is on July 14.

🛢 CRUDE OIL – Week 10 of the new base cycle (28 weeks), Phase 2. The July 7 extreme forecast made an honest attempt to reverse the current bullish trend in crude over the course of three days. However, no technical signal was generated for a short entry. On Friday, the crude market once again tested the July 7 extreme forecast level.

☝️ Crude is trading in a tight sideways channel. Take a look at the bigger picture on the monthly chart – the peak was in March 2022. This sideways chop has now lasted over 3 years. I continue to view the situation as structurally similar to 2010–2014. Back then, the range from the top lasted about 5 years. For reference, I’ve included a chart from that period. See also: Oil Astrology Part 2 and Jupiter & Uranus in Oil Cycles.

⚠️ The next pivot forecast for crude oil is July 14. The next extreme forecast for crude is August 11.

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