👀 WEEKLY SUMMARY 30.6–4.7 / FORECAST

📉 S&P500 – 13th week of the base cycle (average duration: 20 weeks). The bullish nature of the new 4-year cycle is fully reflected in the stock market’s dynamics. As of Thursday's close, the S&P and NASDAQ indices reached new all-time highs. We are holding the long position opened on the 23 June extreme forecast.

👉 The current S&P (ES) futures timidly attempted to break the double top at my extreme forecasts of 9 December and 29 January. DJIA has not yet reached the double top (see weekly chart). Thus, Friday’s market close presents us with a bearish intermarket divergence heading into my 7 July extreme forecast.

☝️ My long-term expectations outlined in the post on the new 4-year cycle remain unchanged. A confident breakout of the 9 December / 29 January double top across all indices would shift the likely bearish reversal outlook to February 2026. The period from 7 to 18 July brings strong reversal aspects, which could complicate this bull run and increase volatility.

⚠️ The next extreme forecast for the US stock market is on Monday, 7 July.

🏆 GOLD – possibly the 8th week of the new base cycle (15–20+ weeks). The short position from the 16 June extreme forecast was closed via a trailing stop. The working amplitude of this move in GC futures was about $7K per contract. If you opened and trailed correctly – congratulations, that was an excellent trade.

👉 Strong hands betting on a bearish gold trend from the triple top likely held onto their short from the 16 June extreme forecast. These are traders who can afford wider stops, using daily MA20 closes as risk control. There was no clear stop-out in that zone.

❗️Strategic insight: based on long-term gold cycles, 2025 is the 10th year of the current 15-year cycle. The tops of both previous bullish 15-year cycles were reached in year 10.

👉 Thus, it is reasonable to assume that the April–June 2025 triple top, formed on my 22 April and 16 June extreme forecasts published in early 2025, could mark the top of the current 15-year cycle. Perhaps the gold bugs are already fully loaded.

⚠️ A strong pivot forecast is due on 8 July. This is a significant aspect with strong correlation to gold bull market tops. Next extreme forecasts for gold: 7 July and 14 July.

🛢 CRUDE – 9th week of the new base cycle (28 weeks), possibly phase 2. The short position from the 19–23 June extreme forecasts was closed via trailing stop. The working amplitude for this move in CL futures was around $6K per contract. If you opened and managed the stop well – congratulations, great trade. If the bear continues, we’ll reopen a short on the 7 July extreme forecast.

☝️ The base cycle I discussed in May 2024 ended as forecast in June 2024. Two bearish base cycles followed. Crude is moving within a tight sideways channel. So far, the pattern resembles 2010–2014.

"👉 The Jupiter–Uranus conjunction that occurred in April 2024, in three previous instances (1969, 1983, and 1996), led to immediate price corrections and a 2–3 year bear market. In 2010, it triggered a 3-year sideways trend (triangle pattern, see chart) followed by the 2014 oil crash."

⚠️ The next extreme forecast for crude is on 7 July.

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