🏆 ILLUSIONS OF GOLD BUGS

🔸 Yesterday on Smartlab, for once, I got a couple of comments. In connection with my last post about gold.

"...the price of gold has never had any limits and never will."

"If I had been 25 years old in 1980 and had bought gold, I would have at least survived the collapse of the USSR (only gold and real estate could save money back then), and by the age of 46 I would definitely not have lost rubles."

In the investment world, such people are called "gold bugs". How right are they that they pine over gold? Look at the gold charts for the periods 1980-2001 and 2011-2015.

🐻 In 1980, gold cost $700-800. In 1991, gold was worth $340. By 2001, gold had fallen to $250. It didn't return to the 1980 level until 2008. Not the best investment.

🔸 If someone aged 25 had invested in gold in 1980 "all the way", they would have been broke by the age of 45. It was an epic 20-year bear with an amplitude of 60%. The investment would have returned to 0 only 30 years later in 2008.

🐮 From 2008 to 2011, gold rose on the Fed's inflationary policy. The growth was from $750 in 2008 to $1600-1900 at the end of 2011. This is a typical bullish trend that regularly happens in any asset from Tesla to cocoa. By the way, S&P has also grown by about 2.5 times during this period.

🐻 From 2011 to 2015, gold fell from $1,900 to $1,000. Investments in 2011 would have paid off to 0 only now. Also not a great investment.

🐮 From 2015 to today, gold has grown by about 2 times. S&P has grown by 2.5 times during this time. Not to mention various stocks, crypto and commodity assets, which have grown dozens of times during this time.

⚠️ From 1980 to today, gold has grown by 3 times, and S&P has grown by 50 times. After the epic fall from 1980 to 2001, with the most optimal entry, gold has grown by 10 times. Over the same period, the S&P grew 7 times, but without the 2-fold 4-year drawdown in 2011-2015.

Gold is an ordinary asset, like many others. It fell and grew. In the end, timing is everything. Don't wither away over gold.

🤡 By the way, how did the second respected commentator plan to legally buy gold in the USSR in 1980? At best, only jewelry trinkets, which were then handed over to a pawnshop for next to nothing.

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