💸 THE LONG CYCLE OF THE YEN

💴 USDJPY – I don’t actively trade currencies, but I do keep an eye on the yen. The USDJPY pair on Forex often reacts quite well to extreme forecasts for gold. Back in April 2024, I wrote:

"✋ Can’t ignore the surge of the US dollar against the Japanese yen to a 34-year high. The medium-term USDJPY cycle is about 4 years. It’s been 3.5 years since the current cycle began — the peak of a bullish cycle is often reached in the 4th year.

☝️ The base cycle of USDJPY is around 25 weeks. The 18th week of the current base cycle is beginning. The cycle is quite mature, and its top is likely close. There's a good chance of a correction within this time window, with a base forming somewhere around June."

👉 The last medium-term yen cycle (averaging 4 years) started in January 2021 and has now stretched to 4.5 years. This cycle is fully mature. The peak of the base cycle mentioned in April was reached in June 2024 in week 27 of the cycle. The base cycle dragged on for 37 weeks and only bottomed in September 2024. Extensions or contractions of base cycles are common when long cycles are wrapping up.

☝️ It looks like the June 2024 high will mark the top of the current 4-year cycle. By April 2025, USDJPY completed another base cycle of 32 weeks (see weekly chart), which is much closer to the average norm of 25+.

☝️ On the monthly chart, this base cycle formed a bearish "head and shoulders" pattern in January 2025. The base cycle lows formed strong support at the 140 level. Overall, the 2024 price structure looks extremely heavy in the moment.

⚠️ The current base cycle of the yen, which began on 22 April 2025, looks weak and has a good chance of turning into a bearish cycle. For that to happen, it needs to break through the strong 140 support. If it does, USDJPY will likely head toward the bottom of the 4-year cycle.

🐻 In that case, I expect this mature 4-year cycle to end with a serious USDJPY bear move by the end of 2025.
🐂 After that, a strong bull is highly likely — typical for the start of a new 4-year cycle. Stay tuned for forecasts.

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