💰 THE DOLLAR'S CYCLICAL AXIOM

👉 Historically, under Democratic administrations, the U.S. Dollar tends to rise into the top of a long-term cycle. Under Republicans, it usually declines into the cycle’s bottom. It’s not a perfect rule, but it gives us something to work with.

👉 This time, the scenario followed the classical script. In September 2022, under Biden, the Dollar Index formed a hysterical top and shifted into a stable bearish trend right after Trump’s victory.

☝️ The major Dollar cycle lasts around 15 years, give or take a couple. The previous cycle spanned 1992–2008, roughly 16 years. The current long-term cycle began in 2008 and is now in its 17th year.

⚠️ As you can see, this cycle is very mature. It seems likely that it peaked in September 2022. Given the extended length, the bottom may be reached soon, followed by a prolonged consolidation phase, similar to the early 1990s and early 2010s.

👉 No detailed target comments for now, but I don’t expect the Dollar to fall below its 2008 level. In any case, the key reversals in the Dollar Index can be tracked through my extremum and pivot forecasts for gold.

👉 I built the long-term charts with ChatGPT. Gray bands indicate Republican administrations, white ones — Democratic.

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