👀 WEEKLY SUMMARY 9.12-13.12 / FORECAST

📉 S&P500 - 19th week of the basic cycle (average of 20 weeks). The cycle is very mature. The extremum forecast on Monday, December 9, worked predictably for a reversal. Considering the maturity of the basic cycle and the convergence of longer cycles, this signal could trigger a solid correction. I won’t repeat myself—this was discussed extensively in late November and the last review.

⚠️ Retrograde Mercury was again on the side of dedicated market players. We successfully closed the long position from the November 18 extremum forecast with an $8K amplitude per E-mini contract. The trend was fully captured. As of Friday’s close, the market is technically in a bearish state. The next extremum forecast is set for December 24–26.

🏆 GOLD - 5th week of the new basic cycle or the 25th week of the old cycle (15–20+ weeks). As anticipated last week, retrograde Mercury didn’t disappoint with its tricks. A strong three-day trend from Monday to Wednesday was almost nullified by Thursday and Friday’s drop. Our December 9 extremum forecast clearly marked the start of the three-day trend. The absolute amplitude movement on the futures was $11K, with a working amplitude of $8K per contract. Congratulations to the winners, and a special thanks to retrograde Mercury.

⚠️ I’m still unsure about the state of the basic cycle. This could be the start of a new cycle from the November 18 extremum forecast or the conclusion of the current cycle. The December 9 extremum forecast didn’t clarify matters. On Monday, the retrograde Mercury period ends, which should bring more clarity to the cycle situation. The next "scheduled" extremum forecast for gold is December 18 (refined from December 16).

🛢 CRUDE - 5th week of the new basic cycle or the 28th week of the old cycle (28 weeks). The December 9 extremum forecast predictably triggered a reversal. As of Friday’s close, the absolute amplitude movement was $4K per CL contract. This could mark the beginning of a new cycle, as suggested last week. I believe the basic cycle situation will become clearer next week. The next "scheduled" extremum forecast for crude is December 18 (refined from December 20).

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