👀 WEEKLY SUMMARY 16.12-20.12 / FORECAST

📉 S&P500 - 20th week of the basic cycle (average of 20 weeks) or the 1st week of a new cycle. The market's behavior was highly characteristic of retrograde Jupiter (exaggeration) at the center of Gemini (volatility) amidst a mature cycle influenced by retrograde Mercury and Mars. We see a strong technical signal on S&P and Dow Jones from the support line formed by our extremum forecasts from October 14 and November 18. This is likely the start of a new cycle. The beginning of a new cycle is always bullish. The next extremum forecast was scheduled for December 24–26. Considering a +/-2 day margin and the actual technical signal, it may already have materialized. Be cautious of volatility, as NASDAQ could dip lower.

⚠️ The December 9 extremum forecast worked clearly to complete the S&P basic cycle correction. The signal didn’t immediately trigger movement, likely due to retrograde Mercury's interference, but stops held firm. The working amplitude of the short position from the December 9 forecast was about $10K per E-mini contract. This forecast, like most others, was made at the beginning of the year. Congratulations to the winners.

🏆 GOLD - 6th week of the basic cycle (15–20+ weeks). The December 18 extremum forecast clearly marked a reversal. We now have a technical buy signal. I am still uncertain about the state of the basic cycle. Given the cycle’s maturity, I’ll assume it’s a new cycle that started with the November 18 extremum forecast. However, it’s unclear whether it’s a bearish or bullish cycle. Pay attention to the technical contradiction: a double bottom versus a double top. Clarity will come only with a level breakout.

⚠️ The next extremum forecast for gold is January 13, 2025. This formation is typically associated with significant moves in precious metals. There is also a relatively strong intermediate signal on December 30. These second-tier intermediate signals will be called pivot forecasts. I’ll provide a more precise definition in a separate post.

🛢 CRUDE - 6th week of the basic cycle (28 weeks). Given the cycle’s maturity, I’ll assume it’s a new cycle. Crude spent the entire week in a choppy correction. The weekly correction’s reversal was initially marked by the December 20 extremum forecast. Last week, I adjusted this to December 18 but was incorrect. However, considering a margin of a few days, it can be said the forecast worked both for a sell on December 16 and a buy on December 20. Technical signals were present in both cases. By Friday’s close, the setup was bullish.

Content Hub - Articles Index - Library / Archive

#stocks #gold #crude