📉 BEAR 2024 IN NUMBERS

🐻 In the May post about the medium-term cycle of the US stock market (https://t.me/jointradeview/66), I promised to calculate the probable amplitude of the forecast correction.

"🤞 When to expect the bottom of the current 4-year cycle? If we are close to the top, then taking into account the current 20-week base cycle (https://t.me/jointradeview/54), which has just begun, we can preliminarily talk about October-November 2024. The correction from the top of the 4-year cycle averages from 20 to 50%. When the top of the cycle is reached, we can assume the approximate level of correction."

Dividing the skin of an unkilled bear is a thankless task, but I will take the risk.

🪐 If we assume that Algol, which I warned about (https://t.me/jointradeview/161), became the top of the 4-year cycle, the 50-week cycle and the current 20-week base cycle, then it can be taken as a starting point for calculating target correction levels.

☝️ When calculating, I proceed from technical support levels and the following assumptions...

1️⃣ The correction from the top of the 4-year cycle is on average from 20 to 50%, more details here (https://t.me/jointradeview/66).
2️⃣ When coinciding with the 4-year cycle, the last phase of the 50-week DJIA cycle often tests or breaks the minimum of the previous 50-week cycle, more details here (https://t.me/jointradeview/187).
3️⃣ The risks of a serious recession and a stock market decline of more than 25% in 2024 are small, more details here (https://t.me/jointradeview/125).

👉 As a result, we have the following numbers:

🔸 DJIA 17% to level 1 34250
🔸 DJIA 22% to level 2 32400
🔸 SPX 18% to level 1 4600
🔸 SPX 23% to level 2 4300

⚠️ I hope we all understand that this is not a dogma, but a guideline. We are working according to the game plan from July 8 (https://t.me/jointradeview/155).

"There are 6 weeks left until our epic forecast extreme on August 19 (https://t.me/jointradeview/11), this will be the 17th week of the cycle and possibly the culmination or double top of the third phase and the entire cycle. Timing-wise, everything fits so far."

See also Results of the week 26.8-30.8 / Forecast (https://t.me/jointradeview/213)